On Sunday, the voters in Lower Saxony will also vote on the “performance” of the federal government. That could trigger some tremors. One factor in particular makes things unpredictable: the fear of the citizens.
The gas price brake will come on Monday, says SPD chairman Lars Klingbeil. Then the experts commissioned by the federal government say how the most important part of Chancellor Scholz’s “double boom” should work. Gas prices will then drop for consumers, says Klingbeil. What he doesn’t say: Many people will benefit more from the cap than others.
And what he doesn’t say either: Why is the specific model only coming next Monday? Why not already on Saturday? Because the Sunday between Saturday and Monday is where a state election takes place, in the second largest state in Germany. In any case, the SPD needs nothing less than a debate about envy and justice before the Lower Saxony elections.
In any case, the Berlin traffic light government is not exactly giving the Social Democratic election campaigners around Prime Minister Stefan Weil any tailwind, on the contrary. As the insecurity among the population grows and the fear factor rises – how do I get through next winter? – the government decides – nothing.
That’s what happened when this mega-government, which is not provided for in the constitution – prime minister plus federal chancellor – met at the beginning of the week, talked for four hours and made no decisions. Social Democratic prime ministers, including Stefan Weil, glossed over the non-result, spoke of a normal process in federal-state negotiations, while others wanted to be less merciful.
“I would have hoped that we would put a button on it today,” commented the Green Winfried Kretschmann, who heads the government in Baden-Württemberg. How who will be relieved of the gas and electricity prices – open. When does that happen, before Christmas? – open. Is there a successor to the nine-euro ticket? – open. Who will pay for the refugee costs, which are rising sharply again? – open. Is there help for clinics that are increasingly in need? – open.
No wonder that uncertainty is growing, fear is increasing. And confidence in the art of government is declining. One should be careful with surveys before state elections, recently they were often wrong, but one finding is so clear that doubts are not appropriate: 60 percent of the population do not trust any party to lead people through this crisis, Forsa determined. A shocking vote of no confidence, especially for an incumbent government.
In the meantime, a political cocktail has been stirred that could cause a hangover in Lower Saxony. Its main ingredients: inflation, war, refugees. No wonder that Lower Saxony’s head of government Stefan Weil breaks away from the Berlin traffic lights wherever he can.
Most recently, he pushed ahead with his own proposal for a gas price brake. If nothing comes from Berlin on the topic that probably moves people the most these days, he wants to play the social democratic caretaker himself. His recipe: a strong state with more and more social programs, paid for with debt.
In contrast, the Union has good cards. Your top candidate Bernd Althusmann scores with the core clientele of the middle class with the message that Berlin’s citizens’ income is dangerous. That takes away the incentive for people who work for little money to get up in the morning and go to work.
Energy has never been as expensive as it is now. But instead of panicking, you should calmly check potential savings at home. As our guide shows, there are many of them.
The Lower Saxony CDU is providing support from the CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is working on Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Economics Minister Robert Habeck and SPD Interior Minister Nancy Faeser. To Scholz because of his clearly verifiable weakness in decision-making and communication, to Habeck because of the unsettling back and forth from nuclear to gas and electricity policy, to Faeser because of migration policy, which doesn’t want to know much about the problems with refugee immigration.
At the same time, illegal immigration is increasing again threateningly: Plus 141 percent, reports the European border protection agency Frontex. Most of the Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi migrants come from Greece and travel to Germany via the Czech Republic. “The numbers are literally galloping,” complains Saxony’s Minister of the Interior, Armin Schuster. The only thing Berlin’s Greens can think of is the admonition that the Saxons should kindly take good care of the refugees.
The big unknown in the Lower Saxony election: the fear factor. The bad image that the Berlin coalition is currently giving, the fear of a winter that can hardly be afforded, increasing numbers of illegal immigration – this is the political mix that suits the taste of the political fringes.
Added to this is the factor of war, which is difficult to calculate. No one is claiming that Western sanctions would bring Russian dictator Vladimir Putin to his knees, even though the eighth sanctions package has just been passed. However, to Putin’s delight, it contains a few exceptions, such as energy imports for Hungary, which will further fill Russia’s war chest.
Sahra Wagenknecht, the Left Party’s most effective public voice, calls the sanctions “crazy” and the AfD – in the Lower Saxony election campaign – “missed”. Both radical parties managed to make a point: that the sanctions hurt the Germans more than the Russians.
What is striking: the Union warns far more strongly against the election of the AfD than the SPD against the Left Party. Most recently, it was Friedrich Merz: “I don’t want issues like immigration, integration and asylum falling into the wrong hands.”
A final word on Hanover and Moscow (no, they are not twin cities…). The eighth package of sanctions against Russia contains a provision that the federal government led by Olaf Scholz reportedly fought for:
European Union citizens will be banned from holding seats on the boards of Russian state-owned companies. It is a “Lex Schröder” that is intended to relieve the SPD of the burdensome debate about Stefan Weil’s predecessor, who rose from Lower Saxony to become German Chancellor: Gerhard Schröder.
The well-informed FAZ correspondent came up with the following comment on Schröder’s successor in Lower Saxony: “Weil cultivated relations between Hanover and Moscow with a fervor that is difficult to explain.”
