the United States has promised tens of thousands of deaths due lifting the quarantine.
While the United States authorities removed gradually introduced through the quarantine restrictions, the scientists make disappointing forecasts. According to experts of Institute of an estimation of indicators of health, University of Washington (IHME), the data which is often referred to in the White house, due COVID-19 in the country may die to 134 thousand people, twice more than the scientists predicted just a month ago. “Kommersant” has learned, what price the US can pay for the desire as soon as possible to restore economic activity.
3 thousand deaths from COVID-19 a day — these are the figures to June 1, 2020 are contained in another forecast made in Johns Hopkins University. These figures are contained in the material of the American administration for internal use, access to which is obtained by the journalists of The New York Times.
Thus, both forecasts, which we like to refer to the American authorities, — IHME and Johns Hopkins University — predict the growth in the number of infected and number of deaths.
Formally, the experts of the IHME, who just a month ago predicted 72,4 thousand deaths from the epidemic, and now they are talking about 134 thousand of victims, look more grim. But in fact their score compared with the results of studies of Johns Hopkins University very optimistic. “Our numbers are all wrong. Here we are talking about whether a model predicts a large-scale epidemic like new York in other States. We have not predicted, because take into account the increasing temperature, the increase in the number of tests and contact tracing of infected. According to our estimates, all this will substantially slow down the spread, and 3 thousand daily deaths for June will not be”, — has explained in conversation with journalists the head of IHME’s Director Christopher Murray.
He noted that a doubling of the number infected in the IHME model is explained as follows: the researchers first took into account data from four mobile operators, which clearly show that Americans are much more likely to go out.
“We all need to find a way to gradually ease restrictions on social distancing, lest it lead to spikes in the number of infected or even full restoration of the epidemic”, — said Mr. Murray on CNN.
Commenting on the appearance of the document, Deputy press-Secretary the White house Judd Deere said that journalists received a document with a forecast of Johns Hopkins University is not a document of the White house and it has not been submitted to the Council on the fight against the epidemic. In the University explained that the document was drawn up for the authorities to elaborate different scenarios and to consider gender��ozenim prediction is impossible.
Mr. Judd assured reporters in the viability presented by the White house recommendations for release from quarantine. According to the official, it is a “based on the scientific method the approach endorsed by the key national experts in the field of health and combating infectious diseases.”
“Saving the health of the American people remains the main task of the President of the trump. This will continue, at the stage when we monitor the attempts of state governments to ease restrictions,” said Mr Judd.
This disaffected segment of society refuses to be silent — for example, in the California city councils of the two coastal cities (Dana point, and Huntington beach) gathered for an emergency meeting after the Governor’s Gavin Newsom on the closure of local beaches. They followed the instruction of the Governor, however, after the vote, instructed the prosecutors to use all possible legal tools to challenge the decision.
In particular, the mayor Huntington beach Lin Semeta seeking an interim injunction pursuant to the decision of Mr. Newsom, the situation would be impossible to assess objectively. “Our County has one of the lowest levels of mortality from COVID-19 throughout California. Therefore, I believe that the decision of the state authorities is based not on facts but on political considerations. This is contrary to the stated goal of the Governor to be guided by science and facts in the fight against this terrible global epidemic,” explained the decision of the city Council Mrs. Semeta. According to her, the city has invested heavily in the provision of social distancing on the beaches, and the townspeople follow the published recommendations.
However, while in their actions and projections to the end do not believe neither the authorities nor the scientists. Ending the conversation with reporters, Christopher Murray from the IHME noticed that the Institute’s experts believe that a temperature increase of one degree Celsius reduces transmission to 2%. “But do we? No,” admitted Mr. Murray.
Alexey Naumov.
