Hendrik Wüst won the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. But nothing is decided yet. Because in the end, neither the CDU nor the SPD will decide who will head the government in Düsseldorf in the future. The kingmakers in NRW are the Greens.
Sunday evening, 6 p.m. In the Rheinterrassen in Düsseldorf, the Social Democrats hold their breath for a moment. In the next moment, a murmur goes through the room, some clasp their hands over their heads. According to current forecasts, the CDU won the largest and most important state election this year. Clearly.
With around 36 percent, the Christian Democrats in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) got their best result since 2005. The SPD, on the other hand, has to give up a lot. Only around 27 percent voted for the Social Democrats – a historically poor result. Nevertheless, SPD top candidate Thomas Kutschaty still hopes for the office of prime minister just as much as his opponent Hendrik Wüst. “Even if the CDU won and the Greens gained ground, I can say very clearly: Social Democracy is ready for a state government.” Kutschaty says this in the knowledge that the voters have actually given the government contract somewhere else.
Meanwhile, another top candidate can sit back: Mona Neubaur from the Greens already has every reason to celebrate. The Greens achieved their historically best result in NRW with around 18 percent. In any case, they will be part of the next coalition. And although the CDU is ahead, if it is mathematically possible, Neubaur will also negotiate red-green or possibly even a traffic light. Not without reason.
It is far from decided who will form the next government in NRW. According to forecasts, it is currently sufficient for black-green as well as for a traffic light. Unlike in the federal elections, the Greens do not have to share the role of kingmaker in NRW with the Free Democrats. All the more they can drive up the price of forming a government after this Sunday.
Neubaur knows how much is at stake for the CDU and SPD. On the one hand, because NRW has six votes in the Bundesrat. With them, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) would no longer need the CDU and CSU there to enforce decisions.
In addition, this defeat in the most populous federal state is already a setback for Scholz. The lost election suggests that a certain dissatisfaction with the federal government was reflected in the election results in North Rhine-Westphalia. According to an ARD survey, just 35 percent say that Scholz was a great support for the SPD in NRW. If Kuchaty were to manage to organize a majority in parliament despite the election defeat, Scholz could at least partially talk away the electoral defeat. The pressure is correspondingly high.
Conversely, the election victory for opposition leader Friedrich Merz is extremely important. He needs a CDU-led government in Düsseldorf to tinker with the realignment of the party after the lost federal election with tailwind. That’s why Wüst can’t afford to mess up the government talks. Before that happens, Wüst will be ready to make big concessions.
As far as Neubaur’s climate policy goals are concerned, both the SPD and the CDU will be prepared to take big steps towards the Greens. The willingness to do so is currently very high in NRW anyway. Many still remember last year’s flood of the century. In addition, the topic of safe and affordable energy is right at the top of the citizens’ list of priorities. The CDU may even be willing to make greater concessions here than the SPD. That’s how it was with the soundings in the federal government.
Rather, the sticking points in the probable negotiations between the Greens and the Christian Democrats lie in social and security policy. Above all, Wüst will try to stick to the previous tough course of his Interior Minister Herbert Reul. After all, Reul is the most popular minister in his government. But can the Greens let a coalition break up?
According to the first forecasts, they cheered on Sunday evening. Lead candidate Neubaur could hardly believe her luck and thanked the voters for the leap of faith. Wouldn’t it be a breach of trust if Neubaur ignored people’s clear preferences and preferred a black-green tripartite alliance with the SPD and FDP? Should she nevertheless ignore people’s preferences, she would quickly be accused of acting undemocratically. She can hardly afford that, since the Greens want to keep growing in NRW.
On Friday evening, the top candidate was on stage for her election campaign final in Cologne. She began her speech with the subject of internal security of all things and thanked the police: “You ensure safety on our streets every day.” That is so important and a great privilege. That is why politicians must provide the appropriate framework, said the Green Party of the crowd. Possibly a mental and substantive moment of preparation – for himself and the Greens.
