In the war between Russia and Ukraine, there is no sign showing how things are now. After recapturing the city of Lyman in the Donetsk region and further advances in the south, the momentum is on the Ukrainian side. But is that enough to defeat Putin?
This Tuesday, after the State Duma, the Russian Federation Council also approved the illegal annexation of the four Ukrainian regions of Cherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhia. While, according to the Russian interpretation, the law now only needs to be signed by President Vladimir Putin to complete the annexation, the problems for the Russian military suddenly continue. Kiev troops are on the offensive in both north-east and south Ukraine.
For Volodymyr Zelenskyj this war can only have one winner anyway. Accordingly, the Ukrainian President is not only sticking to his efforts to completely retake all Ukrainian territories, but also signed a decree on Tuesday banning negotiations with Putin in Ukraine.
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At least at the beginning of the war there had been talks at negotiator level. However, the Kremlin subsequently made a meeting between the two presidents subject to conditions that were unacceptable to Kyiv. Since then, only the guns speak. Kyiv has categorically ruled out negotiations before the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory.
In the first days of the war there was much to be said for a Russian march through until the tide turned. A review:
So is Ukraine actually gaining the upper hand? Markus Kaim from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) is still cautious when answering this question, as he emphasizes in the ZDF morning magazine. But: “The momentum points in this direction.”
With all the joy and satisfaction, however, to announce that Ukraine is winning the war “seems premature to me in view of the determination that President Putin has also demonstrated with the annexation,” said the defense and security expert. His prognosis: “I think we have to prepare for a longer war.”
Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, made it clear in an interview with the “Münchner Merkur” a few days ago: “Ukraine now has the initiative. That’s not a victory yet, but it’s an important condition for achieving victory.” Gressel went on to say that the question of when the initiative would pass from the Russians to the Ukrainians had been around for a long time. “Now it went faster than expected.”
Carlo Masala, military expert at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, said in the podcast “Ukraine – Die Lage” by “Stern” and the “Audio Alliance”: “Ukraine has had the initiative since the offensive in August and it is not losing it.” It is very difficult for the Russians, if at all, to retreat to secure defensive positions. According to Masala, everything indicates that Cherson will fall in the next few days, maybe weeks. This has a psychological significance that should not be underestimated because Cherson is the only provincial capital that the Russian army captured at the beginning of the war and has held to this day.
“Those who control Cherson primarily prevent Odessa from being attacked,” says Masala. The probability that the southern Russian front would then collapse is also very high. “That would be a massive blow to Putin and his army.”
But how did it get to the point that the Ukrainian army has such an advantage? “The Ukrainians found weaknesses in the Russian defenses, which they mercilessly exploited,” Masala explains. And: “The Russian fronts are collapsing.” The Ukrainians’ strategy of cutting off the Russians from logistics is now coming to fruition. The Russian positions lacked everything: ammunition, food, equipment for the front.
At the same time, the military expert warned against celebrating too quickly: one should not forget that significant parts of the army are still in Russia itself and that there is still a Russian navy and air force. “But what is currently in Ukraine shows serious signs of decay.”
Meanwhile, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, told the Telegram news service on Tuesday that five other locations had been recaptured. Videos from the long-fought village of Davydiv Brid and the villages of Velyka Oleksandrivka and Starossillya on the Inhulets River circulated on social networks. In addition, Ukrainian units are said to have moved into Dudchany on the Dnipro River. Official confirmations were initially not available.
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In view of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the EU Commission is preparing for power cuts and other emergencies, including within the European Union. That says the responsible EU Commissioner Janez Lenarčič. 5 million iodine tablets have already been delivered to Ukrainians in the vicinity of nuclear power plants.
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