After four months of war, the Russian army appeared to be on the march to victory. But now the tide seems to be turning – at least in places. The reason is a new delivery of weapons. Mick Ryan explains that the Ukrainians can now resort to an old, successful tactic.
Australian ex-general Mick Ryan has been analyzing the course of hostilities since the beginning of the war. Most recently, the Russian army in particular was able to achieve victories. Ryan then recommended that the Ukrainians allow Putin’s troops to gain territory and launch a counteroffensive with new weapon systems, especially in the south.
And that’s exactly what happened. The Ukrainians are advancing on the Kherson region, which has been under Russian control for months. In addition, the Ukrainian troops are defending the Donbass. And both have had successes to report. In the last few days, the Ukrainians have repeatedly managed to successfully attack important weapons and petrol depots as well as command posts with high-ranking Russian military personnel.
Mick Ryan explains how this became possible. “The performance of the new Himars missile launchers is fantastic,” says Ryan. “They can finally attack Russia’s weak points again.” The USA recently delivered eight of these rocket launchers (Himars stands for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) to Ukraine.
Their advantage: “They are lighter and easy to maneuver compared to older models. The system can shoot and then move quickly to avoid being self-destructed. Because of its range and accuracy, it can attack targets far behind the front line. Thus, the Ukrainians can hit important command posts, communication nodes, airfields, depots and the supply lines.”
Here you can read a compact summary of the most important current news about the war in Ukraine.
This allows the Ukrainians to return to a tactic that gave them an advantage in the early stages of the war. In those days, the Ukrainians often crippled supplies and killed several key generals who got too close to the front lines. In doing so, they demoralized the enemy and won the battle for Kyiv.
Now military expert Ryan says: “The Ukrainians are coming out of the attrition battle in the east, in which the Russians had the advantage with their continuous artillery fire.” Now the tide is turning. The Ukrainians are again focusing on attacks on Russia’s weak points. “It is vital for the Ukrainians to be able to attack Russian positions quickly, accurately and with devastating effect.”
This inevitably leads to uncertainty on the Russian side. President Selenskyj said during the night that the Russians could not feel safe in any of their areas of retreat. A military adviser in the Kherson region also said after a successful attack on a Russian ammunition depot, the Russians felt too safe.
Ryan also takes this line: “In addition to the destructive effect, there is also the psychological effect. Now a much larger part of the Russian troops is within the Ukrainian attack radius. Putin’s soldiers experience the impact firsthand. And that always costs clout in a war.”
The precision of the Himars missiles also has a side effect, Ryan explains. Russian ammunition dumps are often located near residential areas. Since the rockets hit much more accurately and have less scatter, the number of civilian casualties has fallen significantly.
However, according to Ryan, Himars is not a miracle weapon that will now decide the war. “They have an impact and will continue to have an impact. But they will not win the war alone. Military units need many different weapon systems. Himars is just one of them.” In any case, the US will now deliver four more of them.
“Now the Ukrainian army has an antidote”: Read here what Russian military bloggers think about the Himars.
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