Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, told about main trends on financial expectations in July:
In July a major concern for the ruble will not speed economic recovery in the country, – the expert warns. And even if it remains extremely slow (which is likely) you are interested in it is only investors in the real sector. You can not say about those who invested in financial assets.
Banks, funds, emerging markets, now overestimate the percentage of investments of their capital to emerging markets. As for the dynamics of exchange rates in Russia – much more important than the behavior of this class of investors.
Therefore, some one or two special events, which is obviously the main days for the ruble in July will not. On 16 July, the markets will pay attention to the tone of the press conference for the second summer meeting of the European Central Bank, and on 24 July – on the decision on the key rate of the Bank of Russia. However, it is unlikely those days will be for the courses of the dollar/ruble and Euro/ruble critical. In the context of pandemic a powerful monetary stimulus from the world’s leading regulators have been identified in the spring, “printing presses” in Europe and the USA and so are working at full speed.
Yes, moderately low interest rates in Russia are good news for the economy. But at the same time reduced the demand for Russian OFZ bonds, with an annual coupon yield on the last auction of the Ministry of Finance fell to 5.17 percent per annum on 5-year bonds, and is less than 5.85 percent on the secondary market in the benchmark 10-year OFZ bonds.
to Give money in debt to the Russian government was 1.5 per cent less attractive than a year ago, in July of 2019. Moreover, in comparison with the rate to 8.5 percent in March. Therefore, the volume of OFZ placements significantly fell and, therefore, to strengthen the ruble will be more difficult than before.
And, conversely, to weaken the Russian currency will become easier. In these circumstances, the main thing for ruble – oddly enough, the dynamics of the American and European markets. The higher they grow, the more investors available funds and the inclination to more risky investment for them. Including in our market, and therefore the more favorable situation for the ruble.
anyway, for today, and aiming for early next week – the world’s stock exchanges just full of, if not the enthusiasm, the understanding that the shares of major corporations for them to hold more capital more interesting than in dollars or in euros.
wall Street and the stock exchanges of Europe, considered by many to behave incorrectly, paradoxically. Most companies rise in price, like a cat, trying at the sight of danger at the bottom to climb to a higher branch of a tree. It turns out that exchange is gathering pace. Because the risks of depreciation of major reserve currencies overshadow concerns about the poss��tion of the resumption of locks economies and new quarantine measures.
But the assurances of the US authorities that re-close across the country, the economy they will not – operate on the markets magically. Many investors continue to replenish the portfolio, buying slightly cheapened for June paper very wide range of companies, even and is strongly dependent on physical contact with their customers. The index of 500 leading companies in the S&P only 20 percent below pre-crisis highs, and high technology companies on a horse and beat historical records.
due to this (although in the middle of the week the dollar rose above 71 rubles, and Euro almost reached 80 rubles) as of yesterday, the demand for rubles perked up again. But he survived and have the only condition: the quotes on the foreign exchanges should not happen reversal.
this requires that the prospects of the entire global economy, the main companies, and further remained a positive. When performing this conditions, the dollar may finish Friday and start the new week below the mark of 70 rubles. And even to stay on 6-7 July, in the range from 69,3 to 70.5 rubles.
But it all depends on the updates of figures international statistics. And today picture the following. In may, the American economy returned 2.7 million jobs. Fresh data on Thursday 2 July in the building stood another 4.8 million jobs, more than 1.5 times exceeded the average expectations.
at the same time the ISM index of national industrial activity in the USA – days not only broke the story of the crisis decline, but took the maximum from may 2019! Oil reserves in US stores for the first time since January has fallen by more than 7 million barrels last week.
Encouraging activity indicators in Europe, where much better than in the US epidemic situation. And that means there are new prospects for demand for raw materials and prerequisites for the positive on the exchanges.
