The CDU clearly won the election in North Rhine-Westphalia. A slap in the face for Chancellor Scholz. A coalition between the CDU and the strong Greens seems obvious. A traffic light would be theoretically possible, but it would be undemocratic. It’s scandalous that top politicians in the SPD are still thinking in this direction.
It’s a resounding slap in the face for Olaf Scholz. You have to write down this sentence so clearly because the North Rhine-Westphalian SPD tried to wrest power from the CDU with almost just one argument: Olaf Scholz. And this attempt has now failed miserably. So Thomas Kutschaty’s defeat is Olaf Scholz’s defeat.
One can only hope that the SPD now resists the temptation to sneak into power – be it with the Greens or with the Climate Party and the Liberals. It wouldn’t be the first time in North Rhine-Westphalia, more on that later. But it must be said that the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia had its worst election result since 1947 – so it shouldn’t even try to nominate the prime minister. Even the attempt would be a step joke.
All information about the NRW election: EILT – state elections in NRW 2022 – first numbers: victory for Wüst and the CDU – debacle for the SPD and FDP – Greens cheer
Forging a traffic light in Düsseldorf – bypassing the clear CDU election winner – would be an illegitimate attempt to take the most populous federal state hostage for the coalition in Berlin. It would be mathematically possible, but it would be undemocratic.
It is remarkable that the SPD general secretary is now playing with this option in all seriousness – and even passed it off as democratic on ARD. It is just as scandalous that the Federal Minister of Health, Karl Lauterbach from Cologne, joined in these mental games, also in front of an audience of millions on ARD. The two SPD politicians apparently do not know the difference between legal and legitimate. Red-green, if mathematically still possible in the end, would be legal. But by no means legitimate. The principle is: power without conscience. By the way: It was exactly the same Kevin Kühnert who made it clear after the federal elections in autumn 2021 that only the election winner (the SPD) had a government mandate and not the union of the then CDU leader Armin Laschet
The clear NRW election winner Hendrik Wüst has now achieved what seemed impossible a few weeks ago. His CDU was a hefty eleven percent behind the SPD, and now the CDU is a good five percent ahead of the SPD. It’s a swing of more than 15 percent of the vote. That is the achievement of Hendrik Wüst, who managed in the record time of only seven months in office, which hardly anyone believed the CDU could do. And it is a great recognition of the performance of the CDU leader Friedrich Merz.
And just as Scholz played a large part in the election defeat of his comrade Kuchaty, he also played a large part in the election victory of his opponent Wüst. Scholz tried to ridicule Wüst as chairman of the Prime Ministers’ Conference. This is rightly perceived by many people as arrogant and know-it-all.
Scholz tied his performance to that of Kuchaty. In view of the low approval ratings for the chancellor, that was highly risky. Scholz and Kuschaty were pictured on the same posters throughout North Rhine-Westphalia – although of course the Federal Chancellor was not up for election in the state. This, too, may have deterred many voters.
The people of North Rhine-Westphalia react sensitively to any attempt to co-opt them – especially from Berlin. And postering Scholz so dominantly in NRW was such a colonial act that didn’t go down well in the country at all. Precisely because a North Rhine-Westphalian identity is not a matter of course.
The slogan “We in North Rhine-Westphalia” wrested from Johannes Rau’s successful campaign managers of the CSU was a kind of substitute action. Bavaria has a clear identity, North Rhine-Westphalia does not – a general store.
The result will have serious consequences for the traffic light coalition in Berlin. The SPD has performed the worst in the government alliance, starting with the chancellor, who developed a clear credibility problem in the Ukraine war and its management. The Federal Defense Minister, in whom the Chancellor had just expressed his confidence, was called a “total failure” by the “Spiegel”. Christine Lambrecht has badly damaged the SPD.
The Greens delivered the strongest performance in Berlin. The three Green Ministers Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock and Cem Özdemir are in a class of their own. And in Dusseldorf, Mona Neubaur, through tough development work, turned the Greens from a former industrial and economic scare into a credible center party.
A coalition between the libertine CDU and the Neubauer Greens would not only be legal, it would also be extremely legitimate. It would be a contemporary coalition of old and new bourgeoisie. The right conclusion from the need to combine the conversion of the old industrial country with climate protection.
Shortly before election day, Neubaur made an important argument for black-green: you would prefer to form a coalition of two parties. The SPD would be sovereign, they would still admit their electoral defeat today as unsavory to trick. As painful as it is to admit that her best times are over in North Rhine-Westphalia of all places, where she once ruled for 39 years at a time.
The fall of the FDP is tragic but understandable. She made bad school politics. And Christian Lindner, who once saved the Liberals from North Rhine-Westphalia, is far away – in Berlin.
