But in the second half, the Central Bank expects slowing growth.
In April, inflation accelerated to 0.8% (in March the prices grew not so quickly — 0.6%), and in annual terms accelerated from 2.5% to 3.1%, said on Thursday Rosstat. The forecast of economic development was lower, the Ministry was waiting for the inflation in April at 0.4−0.5% and it only accelerate to 2.6−2.7% in annual terms.
Stronger in just month has risen in price products — by 1.7% compared with March. For example, onion prices have almost doubled. Rose and non — food goods- by 0.4%.
core inflation (excluding commodities for which prices are volatile) have also continued to rise, from 2.6% to 2.9% in annual terms. Until March 2020, it was slowed down from June, 2019., pointed out, the Central Bank.
Inflation began to accelerate in March, 2020 (for the first time since March last year). There are several factors that led to acceleration of inflation, indicated CB. The first — a temporary rise in the demand for durable goods amid the ruble weakening, and the second — for products and commodities due regime of self-isolation. These factors continued to operate and in April, indicates the controller.
About the growth of spending including due increase in price, said a third of respondents “Infomem” of Russians (the poll was conducted by order of the Central Bank from 16 to 24 April). But the observed population inflation and inflation expectations is not growing, noted the Central Bank. According to estimates by the regulator, inflation expectations stabilized at 7.9%.
Soon preinflation will replace the disinflationary risks, warned the Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. The disinflationary influence of compression of external and internal demand will be the determining factor for inflation in the second half of 2020 and 2021., pointed out, the Central Bank in the report on monetary politics.
By 22 April, analysts BCG and “romira” noted the decline in consumer demand for 90% of the categories of products and services.
the Decline in demand will not greatly restrain the growth of prices indicated previously, ING chief economist Dmitry Dolgin. Households with savings (such to Central Bank estimates, about one third, only in Russian banks they hold about 30 trillion rubles., or 28% of GDP) will redirect spending from foreign travel (in 2019, spent $45 billion) and other travel on domestic goods and services, he explains. And from structural features in Russia historically low sensitivity of inflation to falling demand: fall of almost 10% in 2015, did not prevent a temporary acceleration of inflation in half (though then the weakening of the ruble was 50%, not 20%), then inflation has remained elevated for another two years, resembled primary care.
At the last meeting, the regulator cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% and signaled who��agnosti of further rate cuts.
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