Lenin argued that imperialism is the highest and last stage of capitalism. But if the classics were able to look with a wise squint in the Russian economic system in its current form, it would certainly have added to his doctrine of the “coronavirus” stage of capitalism. Let’s try to fill this gap the Marxist-Leninist doctrine.
Before answering the eternal question “what to do?” you should find out what is actually wrong? What is the picture true?
After the may holidays will start a “phased” withdrawal restrictions in pandemic coronavirus. But the details of the plan, authorities have not disclosed, on the grounds that decisions will be made by results of the analysis of the epidemiological situation. This means that a clear exit strategy from the coronavirus there is no crisis.
Decisions are situational. The state of uncertainty leads to an increase of anxiety in society because it is unclear what will happen next. The “vertical of power” does not receive clear signals, which reduces its effectiveness. And even the sneaking suspicion, and whether it is the “vertical” in the context of the pandemic? In addition to the prohibitions and restrictions for citizens on what other feats to society is she capable of?
To start lifting restrictions in many countries. We seem to follow the General trend, do “like in Europe”. But there is a caveat.
In the European Union and the U.S. state allocated huge sums to support its citizens and business. And in Russia the whole period of the actual quarantine were discussions about whether to give citizens money or not. Extended time, and after the lifting of restrictions the question should fall away by itself. Apparently this calculation. Everything will resolve itself. And, as promised, the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov, in a month or two “hardships are quickly forgotten”. It was said at the end of April. In the same interview, Peskov said that “in the first month of summer, probably will be easier”, but “each of us then will have lots and lots of work to minimise the impact of the pandemic on their lives.”
In the story of Voltaire’s “Candide or Optimism” is the character Dr. Pangloss. He adhered to the philosophical Maxim: “everything is for the best in this best of all possible worlds”, and even getting into tough scrapes, did not leave with that belief. Apparently, philosophical views Panglossa the basis of the “strategy” out of coronaries. But there are many reasons to remain optimistic in this situation?
the Crisis of trying to “resolve” by analogy with 2008. Then, the Russian economy suffered a severe shock from the collapse in oil prices. Had to “burn” reserves to rescue large companies and banks. Was devalued the ruble. Helped that the global recession did not last long. Oil prices quickly recovered.
Russia was still part of the “big eight”. There were no sanctions from the West. Even the war with Georgia did not affect Western countries who prefer to conduct business with Russia, business as usual. But now the situation is fundamentally different. Moscow is in confrontation with the West. Is a price war with Saudi Arabia in the oil market. The coronavirus has caused such a strong impact on the world economy that the recovery of high oil prices in the short term is not expected.
Russia is a country of raw materials and depends on world market prices for energy and other types of hydrocarbon resources. As the crisis remains protracted, the “money-box” of the national welfare Fund will spend cautiously. And there are important priorities.
Based on the list of “systemically important” companies, state corporations and large oligarchic structures will be saved in 2008. The Russians explained why they will not give money. For example, the famous banker Mikhail Zadornov said that the benefits to the citizens can afford the rich countries, and Russia – “it is a developing country with very average from the point of view of the world hierarchy of income”. The poverty of Russia said TV presenter Vladimir Pozner, comparing our country with the United States and the European powers: “We, if you take our GDP per capita, much poorer. Not just poorer and far”.
These “confessions” authoritative newsmakers “poverty” Russia has been a dissonance with the statements of other banker German Gref said in a recent interview: “Never in the history of Russia and the Soviet Union the country did not have such reserves, which are today. We have more than 500 billion of reserves that could be lent if needed, to cover imports to cover foreign debt, if necessary”.
So what prevents to spend this untold wealth to a good cause? This account is definitely expressed by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, who predicted an “explosion” of inflation, if you give money to citizens. The former candidate for presidents of Russia Ksenia Sobchak has put forward another argument is the money “be eaten”, if we distribute to all. We must help the strong. Then the economy will recover.
the Argument that “money pass,” gives social Darwinism. The majority of the population is very food work. More not even enough to coronaviruses crisis. Now lawless do not have? It looks like the “national welfare” which created the Fund?
And who should be considered “strong”? Economic liberalism in the West and in Russia – two big differences. In the conditions of competition in the economy and in politics, “strong” is the most effective. But in Russia the economy has already become a distribution. And “strong” is someone who closer to a “feeder” who have “cooler connection”. Economic efficiency is not the main criterion of the “strength” of the company. Therefore, the distribution of money to the “strong” is the distribution of “their”.
the Rescue of “dinosaurs” – the big companies of the oligarchs and state corporations, will not save the economy. “Dinosaurs” gluttonous and inefficient. They will be given a trillion – they’ll ask for more. And then another and another. Dependent on external conditions, the economy, they pull can not.
the Dilemma is trying to solve the power – to save the economy or people – are false. Without people there is no sense in the economy. For them it exists and develops. What’s the point of saving the economy, if people do not save? What is it for? To serve the interests of the 1% of the population? At the expense of natural resources that, in theory, owns 100% of the population?
the Number of cases of infection with coronavirus grows and tranquilizing the statements of officials about reaching a “plateau”, the spread of the pandemic will not be stopped. The population is prepared to “phasing out” of the restrictions and return to work after the may holidays. The business must operate so that the oligarchs did not fall in the list of “Forbes”. The salary must be paid by employers, the state has not “fired” provisions.
in the past people were called “second oil.” But “black gold” have fallen dramatically in price and people began “first oil.” Waiver of benefits for the population and support of small business means that with the crisis struggling the expense of the population. People need “lots of work”. Their function is to bring profit to those who own the Russian economy, and does not “eat away” money.
As you know, avaricious pays twice. Now the people saved. The majority of the population before the pandemic, not show off, and now forced to fight for survival. Worldwide experts warn of second wave of the pandemic. After the lifting of restrictions, this “wave” will not keep itself waiting long and will probably be stronger than the first.
as far As Russia is ready to such turn of events? Optimized medicine is already unable to cope with the first “wave”. Doctors thrown into the breach as in the last battle. But when life is at stake, even promises of high salaries and bonuses do not work. What happens to the medicine in the whole country – a very difficult topic.
fails and “vertical of power”. Officials are people too. The most important will provide the best conditions for treatment. But officials of the middle and lower echelons of the state hierarchy is not protected more than ordinary citizens. The wages are low and benefits no special. Privileges are put only by those, who heads the pyramid.
the Abyss between the ruling class and the rest of Russia was too great. “Elite” is like living on another planet. In a different reality. But the coronavirus acted as a equalizer. “Elite” is not simple.��Xia protection and guarantee of security. Deputy “crust”, security, the limousines with the flashing lights and other attributes of elitism that separated from the “common people” for coronavirus obstacles are not.
a Priority in the current situation should be the health and welfare of all citizens, not just the “elite” social “pyramid.” Simple logic dictates that the “tip” will not hold if under it will collapse “base”. Decisions are now postponed, you still have to take. The state will be forced to spend all that is in inventory to prevent what is gently referred to as “social explosion”, and in fact can turn into a riot and the collapse of the entire system.
