Occurred on the background of distribution COVID-19 crisis stimulates businesses to reconsider their attitude to the business centers. Against this background, the real estate market participants are waiting for the redistribution of demand in favor of coworking and flexible office spaces, totalling this year in Moscow will increase by more than a third.The share of the segment of flexible spaces, of the total office supply in Moscow by the end of 2020 will increase from 1% to 1.5%, analysts predict Space 1. The CEO Pavel Fedorov suggests that this happens due to the redistribution of demand. Consultants while making more cautious predictions. Head of research at JLL Vladislav Fadeyev agrees that the segment of flexible office space will grow the fastest of the office market, but to take a share of 1.5% of the total volume of supply, he, according to his forecast, will only be able to 2022. Cushman & Wakefield adds that the real volume of supply of coworking for the year will grow by 34%, to 271 thousand sq. m. Consultants explained that the claimed increase of 50 per cent, but in a crisis this figure seems unrealistic.Construction activity on the office market, according to forecasts Cushman & Wakefield, will be reduced by 20% relative to 2019: total can be put 220 thousand sq m of real estate. The total volume of the coworking market against this background, can grow only by 1.2%. By the end of 2019, the total volume of supply of high quality office premises in Moscow made up 18.17 million sq. m. CBRE predict that by the end of 2020, the commissioning of new office premises will not exceed 300 thousand sq m is at least 22% lower than the same indicator last year. Declared input flexible office spaces in this case is 70,68 thousand square metres, of which 10.8 thousand sq. m have already been delivered. Based on the calculations of the consultants, the share of coworking in the General input structure can be 23% against 18.5 percent a year earlier. But senior consultant, office Agency, CBRE Olesya Malakhova agrees that the plans to reduce discoveries indefinitely and will be forced operators flexible office spaces. Although the expert did not rule out the emergence of additional demand for coworking: they can become an alternative to traditional offices, so they do not require capital costs and provide an opportunity to quickly conclude a contract. Partner at Cushman & Wakefield Natalia Nikitina expects that the peak demand for coworking will be in the third or fourth quarter of 2020 at the expense of those who will leave employees to work remotely, and after quarantine.Pavel Fedorov said interest from tenants to the so-called flex office is a fully insulated office that quickly adapts the particular tenant. “Previously the area was mainly interested in IT companies, there is now a demand from the retailers, manufrodstvennyj, near-state structures. In March and April we had 10-15 specific requests to moving to the flex format,” he says. Thus, according to mister Fedorova, the tenants wanted to sign contracts for 18-24 months, it is now up to 12 months, despite the need in this case to pay to the rate of 10-15%. According to estimates by CBRE, in the first quarter average rental rate of a service office in Moscow amounted to 24.5 thousand rubles per workstation per month.The Director of the office real estate Department at Knight Frank Maria Zimina while waiting for the redistribution of the market operators of flexible offices. “Like many businesses built on the model of the sharing economy, coworking is not able to withstand long simple, after the pandemic a high probability of closure spaces, primarily brick and mortar and not having support in the form of the parent company,” she explains.Alexandra Mertsalova
