Despite a significant increase in oil prices during the last days of may, a barrel rose from $20 to $29 – ruble feels uncomfortable, and is losing ground to the dollar and the Euro.
on the eve of may day, the dollar was estimated at less than 73 rubles, then over the weekend its value exceeded 76 rubles, and the Euro reached 83. the Official exchange rate for the first time after the holidays, the Central Bank will announce on 6 may.
Experts hope that the success of the oil will be a stimulus to strengthen “wood”, as it is the beginning of this month has earned a new agreement, OPEC+, suggesting a further decline in the production of “black gold” and, as a consequence, the strengthening of growth in oil prices. However, the overabundance of oil on the world market still persists and the next transaction on the restriction of the production, most likely, will not be able to change pricing. And risks associated with the epidemic of the coronavirus, can derail the Russian currency up to $85-90 per dollar.
the First days of may confirmed that the steady state market prices of oil are very poorly reflected in the strengthening of the Russian currency. If the value of “black gold” from the end of April increased by almost 50%, “wood” continued to become cheaper — at times, his value dropped to 76 rubles per dollar.
Experts believe that it is too early to lose heart. During the holidays, when the domestic exchange were on vacation, the main transaction affecting the course “wooden”, took place on foreign exchanges. Including on U.S. exchanges. However, as the analyst CC “Finam” Sergey Drozdov, although foreign trades and put pressure on the value of the ruble, they should not be considered significant because the volume of transactions in the course of such transactions is insignificant and is able to provide immediate impact on the exchange rate, but not lead to long-term collapse of quotations.
Such arguments can be very persuasive. Already on 5 may, the dollar fell to 74 rubles, which differs little from the value determined at the end of April. According to analysts, the ratio of Russian and American currency started to affect the deal to extend an embargo on oil production, concluded last month.
Other remarkable factors to support the ruble can be considered significant decline in imports, extremely weak demand for foreign currency, which is observed in the market for the second month in a row, as well as the reduction in trade activity. Moreover, global investors began to increasingly rely on the growth of demand for oil from China. The current level of consumption of hydrocarbons in may has a chance to stabilize, and with the implementation of optimistic scenario, even increase to $35-40 per barrel.
But in the minds of analysts, not only sit an optimistic scenario. Nesm��spite of the reduction of oil production by more than 10 million barrels a day, due to oversupply and overflow of storage of the Russian Urals, which compared with North sea Brent stands at $2-3 cheaper, risks definitively to slip below $15 dollars. This means that without the support of the Central Bank of the Russian currency will be difficult to resist even at the level of 80 rubles per dollar and the rate of “green” can fly up to 85 rubles.
the Central Bank, most likely, will try to keep any negative pressure on the “wood” by the daily sale of dollars on the open market. In this case, the regulator will be able to “settle” the Russian currency at some time in the quiet Harbor and the dollar to fall, in the absence of catastrophic economic turmoil, will remain within 70-75 rubles. “However, the Central Bank is able to strike in the back the ruble — said Drozdov. — Reducing the key rate, the Bank of Russia reduces interest of investors to the Russian banking sector: loans become cheaper, but payments on deposits melt away”.
according to respondents, “MK” experts, the probability of realization of an optimistic and pessimistic variant for today are the same. But, according to the head of the financial directions of the Institute of contemporary development Nikita Maslennikov, the scales in one direction or another can sway the course of the epidemic of the coronavirus. Speculators are people too, and both good and bad news on the pandemic, they can put in future quotations of the ruble.
