Now, many experts and analysts say that the world after a pandemic will not be the same as before. You agree with that?
Antonio Fallico: the Current pandemic has not become the root cause socio-economic problems. She sharpened those that were viewed for a long time, adding specific elements.
the Economic downturn of global proportions was expected, but a little later. We are not the first see a contradiction between the globalist and protectionist tendencies, we see a constant escalation of non-economic, non-market forms of competition, including sanctions, tariff restrictions and so on. Today we are experiencing exactly the same thing, only in the strong. In the framework of the fight against the spread of coronavirus widely closed borders, economic selfishness manifests itself stops a lot of production and economic activities, people are losing their jobs and income, some trends have gained disastrous proportions. Experts more than usual, competing in the description of scary scenarios.
How this will affect the social sphere?
Antonio Fallico: Social sphere does not remain aloof from these tectonic shifts. It is appropriate to recall the unjustly forgotten the idea of Marx on the alienation of labor (alienazione del lavoro). He believed that in a growing division of labour a person becomes a part, an appendage of production, and identified 4 types of alienation: from the process of labour, from the product of labor, from its own identity and people from each other. Labor becomes a commodity, it is sold for a wage. The product is separated from the person who was involved in its manufacture.
the Former prevailed until the crisis of 2007-2008, the neoliberal system for many years more deeply altered the content of the work. Was his impairment, structural deterioration. Fashionable English words: lean production, outsourcing, just in time, new management… It is also about the alienation of labor. The result of the very social inequality not only increased but also deepened between regions, between Nations, within countries and even within individual social groups. This phenomenon is becoming more rampant.
We are facing the alternative: either the alienation will increase, or we need to work to overcome this contradiction. The current crisis creates conditions for solving problems in a positive way. Need to develop a new, more just social platform. Otherwise, the world will go to social disaster.
There is a view that the current coronaries, at least in its economic part – the continuation of the crisis of 2007-2008. Why?
Antonio Fallico: Financial cu��ZIS, which began in the US in 2007 and then spread to the whole world, was no ordinary opportunistic crisis, as the previous cyclic failures over the last 30 years. It was a crisis model, which has ceased to generate economic growth. Until 2007 the world economy grew at 4% per year, about the Chinese rate generally will not speak. Then the indicators fell, but in fact, in the ensuing years, the band began the stagnation of the economy, which has flooded with cheap money to avoid the worst. Prior to the current problems of Germany promised by the end of 2020 a little more than 1% growth, Italy – zero tenths percent. Such indicators, one might say, is in the range of statistical error.
economic growth and its subsequent slowdown, and the growth of social inequality were caused by skewed development towards financial speculation. This process began in 1980-e years, but zero years of this century finally took shape. In 2007, the assets of financial institutions in one and a half times higher than the global GDP. In industrialized countries, over the years, financial sector profits grew faster than others. At the same time has been dramatically increased social inequality.
How do You see social picture of the future? Social inequality can decrease or increase?
Antonio Fallico: the Growth of social inequality has become an integral part of the current stage of economic development. It is not due to stagnation, and the current model of the economy, social relations, income distribution.
Inequalities have increased everywhere. On a planetary scale, the top 1% and top 10% of the population in 1995 was owned by respectively 18% and 49% of global income. In 2016 the top 1% and top 10% already owned respectively 24% and 62% of global income. And as of mid-2019, the wealth of the top 1% is more than two times higher than the wealth of the 6.9 billion inhabitants of the Earth! At the same time direct labor income brings smaller and smaller, but growing role of financial rents. This model of economic development leads to the fact that the growth of labor productivity and income are losing the reference to collective social and economic development. We are moving away from the circuit money-commodity-money, we follow the scheme of money-money. The ability to generate collective wealth is lost, there is a gap between capitalist production and democracy.
‘t continue to generate an increasing economic inequality, social fractures, leading to radicalism and the loss of values. The world needs an alternative model of economic development. The economy must be put at the service of man, that would have been in the center of the production system. The modern economy should be circular, sustainable, and saltDARNA. It is difficult but possible.
Digitalization, augmented reality, Internet of things and other technologies occupy a more prominent place in our lives. How will this affect the labour market?
Antonio Fallico: this period of isolation, which to some extent are a lot of countries, showed the increasing role of digital technology. This is a remote work from home, and distance learning and the expansion of all kinds of digital services and activities. After coronaries extreme manifestations of this new reality will depart on the second plan, but will remain in daily life. For example, I personally do not believe in the greater effectiveness of distance learning: the quality of education it provides, is clearly lower. It’s like in the past intramural and extramural training. But, apparently, distance learning and appropriate technology will be better represented than at the beginning of the current academic year.
Robotics production with the use of more innovative technologies, which increases productivity, also did not start today. As a result, unfortunately, many will lose their jobs. It is clear that this opens jobs in other industries and fields. So often before, at each stage of the industrial revolution. But how many will be new jobs? And what about unskilled labor? The extent to which new activities to compensate for possible mass job loss as a result of robotics? How to change the social structure of society?
this raises another question. Production became more efficient and productive as a result of robotics, who will buy? People who have lost their jobs? Or goods and services in the future the world will be fundamentally different in quality and, consequently, price? In the result of a technological breakthrough, social stratification and inequalities will increase further and the parameter of the quality of consumption?
So, again, requires a fundamentally different system of organizing the economy and society. In the centre a person should stand. Then robotics with the digitalization will be put in service of it, and not Vice versa.
How do You see the socio-economic situation of Russia and the Eurasian economic Union after the pandemic?
Antonio Fallico: the World is entering a period of serious decline. What will be its depth depends on the speed of overcoming health problems and the effectiveness of measures to support the economy, in different States. By the way, the role of the state in the economy has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Specific numbers I would operate did not, they are different and based on different techniques. But in General we can assume that in the USA re��Asia will be serious in the smaller European Union, and China. But the global slowdown is inevitable. It will undermine opportunities for the restoration of economies that are export-oriented.
This applies to Russia, a large share of GDP which consists of oil industry products, working heavily on foreign markets. Part of its economic performance will directly depend on the recovery of external demand for these products.
How do you assess measures taken by the government and the Bank of Russia?
Antonio Fallico: Russia is ready to the current severe economic trials, obviously. Compare, for example, from August 1998 is inappropriate. The existence of markets, with 180 million people, can also be considered a stabilizing factor for the countries participating.
the Russian authorities, both public and financial, taking the right measures to support businesses, relying, in particular, on the ability of the national welfare Fund. However, the obvious failures between right decisions and carrying them out. Vacation credit, various types and difficulties in the delivery of blood plasma of people who recover from coronavirus, identified the bottleneck: sometimes dated, and at times not corresponding to the severity of the time, bureaucratic practice. It will have to work hard.
