North Korean leader does not appear in public for more than two weeks. In North Korean media since April 11 there are no new photos and video of Kim Jong UN. And on April 15 he was not present at the celebration of the Day of the Sun — the birthday of his grandfather, the founder Kim Il sung.
In the South Korean and Japanese media, and social media, came the publication of the serious illness of the leader of the DPRK and even his death.
the Last time such rumors were in 2014, when Kim is more than a month has not appeared in public.
About what is happening in one of the most closed countries and how to distinguish the truth from the fakes about the DPRK, bi-Bi-si said lead researcher, Center for Korean studies Institute of Far Eastern studies Konstantin Asmolov, a specialist in Korean culture at the School of Oriental and African studies, University of London, author of the recently published book “Songs for great leaders” Keith Howard and senior researcher at the University Kunmin in Seoul Fedor Tertytsky.
Keith Howard: it is Very important to monitor what is happening on the border between the two Koreas. If the number of troops, the DPRK is increasing, then something happens. Now nothing of the kind.
on the other hand, it is very unusual that the first time Kim did not attend the birthday celebrations of his grandfather. After all, his image — a faithful follower of the case of Kim Il sung. He acts like a grandfather. For example, when he climbs the sacred mountain Pektusan on a white horse. And the fact that he’s missed other events, in addition to the grandfather’s birthday, not that unusual.
Konstantin Asmolov: I think he some health problem, but it is absolutely fatal. Given his diabetes and Smoking, severe nervous work, I can assume that he was unwell.
on the other hand, rumors of his vegetative state go, citing anonymous sources, or materials, characterized by low validity of the propaganda antipregnancy sources. We believe that Kim is alive until we see an obituary. On the other hand, we do not believe that Kim is all right, until you see new photos and videos with its participation.
Fedor Tertytsky: no One knows what’s going on with Kim. The only thing interesting in the last days, “Rodong Sinmun”, the North Korean analogue of the newspaper “Pravda” writes about the telegram that Kim sent to another head of state — President of South Africa. Judging by the fact that the documents for his signature show, he is more alive.
Typically, reports of the death of the leaders come really fast. On Stalin’s death, quickly said. Speaking of Korea, on the death of Kim Il-sung announced the next day. On the death of Kim Jong Il through the day. I think if Kim Jong UN dies, we learns that even rem about this quickly.
Konstantin Asmolov: There is a common understanding of the context in General suggests that in this country to happen and what is the result of frankly propagandistic fantasies.
If we see the news, citing anonymous, with reference to the organization of defectors from North Korea, who claim that they have secret informants, about which we will not tell, and the news is based only on this, without any other evidence, it is with high probability a duck.
Anna Fifield (author of a book about Kim Chen Yne “Great successor”) is a fairly valid source about North Korea. But this time the people who she trusted, told her that over Pyongyang helicopters fly in the city to panic. However, the Russian reporter, who was in Pyongyang, walked around the city and didn’t see.
Fedor Tertytsky: I wouldn’t believe the reports about the death of the leader, until they officially announce North Korea. I remember in 2011 no one suspected that Kim Jong Il died.
In General, there are media reports, more credible, for example, the South Korean newspaper the Daily NK, which I know more than half of the employees. In the mid-2000s, they established a network of agents in North Korea, where they reported completely innocent, but unknown things, like the appreciation of the yuan on the black market and corn prices.
Less than I’d believe the reports in the Japanese press, reason in Japan the extremely low standards of journalism on North Korea in the press. But the channel al-NHK — quite a decent media when it comes to the DPRK.
If we talk about refugees and defectors, the end of zero among these people there were practically no people who engaged in questionable dealings. Now the situation is different. And the adequacy of, for example, a defector who spread rumors about the state of Kim in 2014, says a lot the fact that he poured soup his supervisor when his defense moved for six months.
Keith Howard: One thing to media, and another thing — the South Korean government. It is closely following the developments. The same Japanese who have reliable sources, but in this case we are talking about the government, not the media. So ignore everything that appears in the media, if there is no evidence of the official Seoul or Tokyo.
Keith Howard: In the last few weeks we see a more prominent role Kim yo-Jong, sister of Kim Jong-UN. But his elder brother Kim Jong-Chul, has no ambitions of power, he is sort of a Eric Clapton, and his have long not seen.
In press reports half-brother of the father of Kim Chen UN, Kim Pyong Il. He has long worked as a diplomat in Europe. But he belongs to the outgoing generation. Signal etth generation was the execution of the uncle of Kim Jong UN.
Children of Kim, of course, are very small in order to be a successor (according to some reports, the North Korean leader’s two children — one eight, one nine or ten years old — Bi-bi-si).
Before 2011, Kim Jong-UN succeeded his father, he had long prepared. Kim Jong-Il in 2008 had a stroke. And in early 2009 appeared the first official song of the successor, that is, preparation of a successor took about two years.
In 1994, when North Korea founder Kim Il-sung was succeeded by Kim Jong-Il, the military was unhappy. And last it took about two years to become the Supreme leader. Interestingly, at this time in North Korean culture, there are many folk songs. No one knew whom to praise the father, son, and the military?
Konstantin Asmolov: We can engage in abstract theorizing, but nobody can guarantee that it will.
Markers specific training of a successor, as was the case with Kim Jong-UN, when there were special songs that were special titles were the articles — just do not.
If it was about the younger sister of Kim Jong-UN, Kim Yu-Jeong, she could appear some title or hint that “we have a woman, comrade leader.”
Remember, looked like a moment of “enthronement” of Kim Jong-UN, which lasted a year and a half. A song about the young General, the appearance of him standing next to Kim Jong Il when he went behind his father’s tail and learned to control.
you Can recall the older brother of Kim, which went to the music, but we had a ophthalmologist (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, son of former President Hafez al-Assad — Bi-bi-si), which also said “should”. While all this talk before.
Fedor Tertytsky: a Large part of the academic community nominate successor to Kim, his sister Kim yo-Jong, but she is only a candidate member of the Politburo. somebody member of the political Bureau, maybe he wants to take the office of Chairman of the party, at least to sister Kim was not shot him, as Kim shot his uncle.
Konstantin Asmolov: Any rocking of the boat creates the illusion that North Korea that’s will be a crisis, and the forces that wish to erase the DPRK from the world map, there are.
the Constitution of South Korea includes the entire Peninsula, the national security law treats the North as an anti-state organization.
North Korea, according to this interpretation, not a separate country, and a certain gang, which has captured five Northern provinces. And if very to simplify, it is view of Kiev DNR and LC.
Fedor Tertytsky: I think about this story all safely forgotten, if Kim Jong-UN using whatsomething time will be fine. When Kim disappeared for 40 days, nor what consequences it does not.
the Power scenario is not relevant about half a century. If we apply the analogy with the DNI and LC, they are far from Kiev, but here North Korean artillery group is located about seventy kilometers from Seoul, it can explode and we all die.
Keith Howard: Much more important is the position of the United States. In 1970-e years, South Korea has developed its nuclear programme, and the United States stopped her. The American presence in South East Asia is extremely important for the preservation of peace. Now trump is reducing military presence in the region, and this makes the position of Seoul is much more dangerous.
If North Korea decides to invade South Korea or fire missiles at Seoul, the US will need a few days to redeploy troops into the region, bombers, and by this time South Korea will have caused long-term damage.
