the Russian airline could lose in 2020 550 billion worth of sales due associated with the epidemic of the coronavirus restrictions on flights and falling demand, told “Vedomosti” senior expert aviation practice Bain&Company Sergey Zaitsev. Bain is part of the big three global consulting firm.
According to Zaitsev, this forecast is based on the fact that the current situation with the internal transport will continue until the end of June and the demand to the level of 2019 will be restored by December 2020, and a ban on international flights will continue until the end of July and by December, demand will recover only to 60% from last year.
the Airline, thus, on international flights will not receive 380 billion rubles in revenue, on internal — 170 billion rubles., says Zaitsev. The basis of the calculations is the amount of exposed vessels on domestic and international flights in 2019., adjusted for market growth, and average income per seat-kilometer.
International flights by the government were closed during the previous month and was completely banned at the end of March. Flights to Russia are allowed, but due taken by the Federal government (close to the end of may all of the hotels and resorts, days) and the regional authorities of measures (a 14-day quarantine for arriving from Moscow, the self-isolation), the demand for them has fallen dramatically. According to the International Association of airports, in April, traffic on domestic airlines is 20 times lower than in April 2019.
According to the forecast passionart Russian airlines in 2020 on international routes will drop by about 65% to 55 billion seat-kilometers through this fall will be about 35% to 94 billion seat-kilometers said of birds.
Assaeroporti — a measure that takes into account the number of passengers and the length of the routes. From the distance of the flight depends on the price of tickets. For now cancelled international flights in 2019 58% assaeroporti and 43% of passengers of Russian airlines.
In 2019 passionart Russian airlines amounted to about 300 billion seat-kilometers that is this year the volume of services provided and revenues industry risk reduced by half. Possible loss of industry comparable to the revenue of the entire group “Aeroflot” (678 bn) in 2019 To “Aeroflot” and its subsidiaries in the past year accounted for 47% of passengers and 48% of passenger traffic of all Russian carriers (data of Federal air transport Agency).
the Direct losses of the airlines will be smaller and will be 275-330 billion rubles., in the absence of a flight, they are not part of variable costs, especially on fuel, airport charges, aeronautical services, continues birds with one stone.
the Airline forecasts itstheir loss is not voiced.
the timing of the restoration of air service officials do not even call about. Chief sanitary doctor of Russia Anna Popova said that the regions can start to relax quarantine measures after may 11, but under the supervision of the Federal authorities.
“recovery of the domestic market by the end of the year, and international traffic in half — a very optimistic scenario. Significant growth in international lines will begin, most likely, only a year and a full recovery of the traffic will take years,” says Director of NT-26 GosNII of Civil aircraft Alexander Friedland.
While all previous crises in the Russian economy followed in aviation intensive growth (“rebound”), this time the recovery will be excruciatingly long and to the level of 2019 and the aviation industry will, if the state will not have its massive financial support, will be released no earlier than 2024., adds Friedland.
Decisions about air support, is still pending. President Vladimir Putin instructed the government to allocate to the airlines 23 billion rubles., the government has already announced that to cover their losses for March will pay 7.3 billion rubles., but the ruling government has not come out. But the airline has not received so far and 23 billion roubles in compensation for the rise in prices of jet fuel last year, which was promised by the President.
