Russia is gradually get off the “oil needle”. However, it is not by the efforts of the state, long promised to the population the transition to an innovation economy, and because of the coronavirus, sharply reduced global demand for domestic energy resources. As suggested by experts of SKOLKOVO, the delay of the epidemic threatened to send Russian oil and gas and energy companies in the knockout, and the overall economy of the country may be short of 13% of revenues from energy exports. The rate of “black gold” and “blue fuel” could be losing to Russia.
Experts of the energy Centre of Moscow school of management SKOLKOVO in his analysis did not spare the fuel market of Russia. According to their estimates, dramatically falling demand for energy caused by the coronavirus and pandemic led to a dramatic collapse in hydrocarbon prices, will drop the Russian GDP directly on a 5-13%.
In particular, revenues from exports of oil, previously brought the country about $150 billion, will fall 3 times, to less than $50 billion a year. And in the worst scenario, if a Russian grade of oil Urals will drop to $15 per barrel, export revenues from oil collapses by more than 10 times, and not to exceed $12 billion.
According to the leading expert of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov, these predictions may be realized. “If in 2019 the average quotations of a barrel was $60, then in 2020 the value of the “barrels” are unlikely to go beyond $20-30. This may be a good option for manufacturers. However, at these prices, the export duty on oil will actually be equal to zero. But it is one of two components from hydrocarbon production, which bring money to the budget. In Russia the oil and gas rent is generated from two sources — it charges for energy exports and a tax on mining. At present, export duties for oil and gas close to zero. In April of such fees was approximately $52, whereas previously they level exceeded $100 per ton. That is, it turns out that government revenues from oil exports fell by half. So if last year the Russian budget revenues, the contribution of the oil and gas sector accounted for about 40%, by the end of 2020 it will not exceed 20%” — the expert believes.
the Consequences associated with the coronavirus of the economic crisis can be also very negative for the Russian power industry. According to experts “SKOLKOVO”, world although electricity prices decreased slightly while, however, the producers are forced to reduce investments in capacity development, and most importantly — to freeze investment projects, because they have no money to pay contractors and creditors. According to senior analyst “BKS the Prime Minister” Serge�� Suverova for ordinary domestic consumers, electricity tariffs this year will grow within inflation, budgeted at 4%. “This is a political question, which will be executed, including at the expense of means of Fund of national security. In turn, the fall in demand of industrial enterprises, which this year because of the quarantine will be about 8-10% would probably be filled on account of the growth of prices for power energy companies. To compensate for the current decline, the future growth rates for power shall be not less than 18%. This will increase the cost of the electricity supply industry rate several times higher than inflation,” believes the analyst.
Not better, according to experts “SKOLKOVO”, it is the case with the prospects of Russian gas exports. Currently occurs the false impression that the pandemic affected the global gas system is much less than in oil. “Blue fuel” is mainly used by industrial enterprises, power systems and households, while the transport company uses such fuel only if there is available technology. However, it is worth considering that in 2020 gas demand in the European and Asian markets fell by a total of 50 billion cubic meters. By the end of 2019, the net profit of Gazprom under international financial reporting standards decreased by 17%. This year experts predict that, due to falling exports, it will fall at least 25%.According to the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev, current gas prices in Europe are lower than in Russia. “In our country a thousand cubic meters of gas costs an average of $60, and in the EU for this volume give less than $50. For “Gazprom” the price below $100 per thousand “cubes” are already unprofitable. The second quarter and for external markets and for internal consumption is getting worse, but recovery of consumption and prices till the end of the year should not wait. This means a reduction of revenues gas revenues in the Russian budget. In conjunction with the decline in oil profits, this will lead to higher energy prices within the country”, — the expert believes.
