Countries “big twenty” in the current year will be facing an unprecedented downturn: GDP will shrink by 5.8% and a full return to the old “normality” will not be a vaccine against coronavirus or the effectiveness of treatment, predicts the international rating Agency Moody’s. Including the US economy will shrink by 5.7% in the Euro area by 6.5%. In Russia, the decline will amount to 5.5%, but growth next year will be extremely weak — only 2.2%, is expected in the Agency.The world economy will face a sharp drop in business activity in the second quarter, but its recovery in the second half will be only gradual, it follows from the updated Moody’s forecast. According to experts of the Agency, the GDP of the countries “big twenty” (they account for 84% of global growth), this year will be reduced by 5.8%, but after rising in 2021-m by 4.2%, will remain below pre-crisis levels in most developed countries. Oil prices will remain low — an average $35 per barrel of Brent crude this year and $45 per barrel in the next.In the United States in the current year the economy will shrink by 5.7 percent (in 2021-m increase of 4.5%) in the Euro area by 6.5% (growth of 4.7% a year), in China growth will be only 1% (with the rebound of 7.1% in 2021-m). Developing countries “the twenty”, with the exception of China, will face a reduction in GDP of 3.5%, including the Russian economy this year will shrink by 5.5%, but will increase in the next only 2.2%. But amid monetary easing in developed countries, flows to these markets will begin to recover, waiting at the Agency. The volume of support here vary, but on average developing countries “the twenty” has taken a more limited packages of measures to support the economy (in Turkey, equivalent to 2% of GDP in Brazil is 6.5%, South Africa — 10%).First and foremost, this applies to supply chains and consumer behavior — part of the production, including medical protection, will be moved closer to the consumer. Due to the persistence of some forms of social distancing a negative impact on the tourism and retail sector may be irreversible, a full return to the old “normality” in Moody’s do not expect a vaccine or effective treatment.Tatiana adominoplasty and the Central banks of many countries have announced measures to support business and households, however, if the set measures almost everywhere comparable, such as additional unemployment benefits and subsidized loans for business— the size of the programs varies considerably, the monitoring of macroeconomic research Centre of the Fri. The most “generous” can be considered a support system in Germany: companies can receive grants without bureaucratic procedures, as well as to seek benefits for part-time employment for employees whose workload was reduced ��because of the quarantine.Read more
