Developers are threatening bankruptcy if the regime of restrictions in the sphere of construction ends in a month or two.
the Number of defrauded real estate investors in the country may increase by 135 thousand people, predicts Rating Agency of building complex. If the restrictions will last until July, developers will be forced to transfer terms of input of objects in operation, and by year-end at risk of going bankrupt up to 1 thousand developers. Only in the Moscow region, developers can lose about 170 billion rubles, and across the country — 500-550 billion If the restrictions will be in effect until June, the number of the deceived shareholders could increase by 90 thousand people. However, the industry participants hope that a temporary ban on the construction — at least in the Moscow region — will be removed after the may holidays.
– Isolation and temporary stop the construction works to bring the housing industry huge losses. Each day of quarantine increases the fixed costs of developers, reduces cash flow and increases the uncertainty of future situation told “Izvestia”, the General Director of Rating Agency building complex (RASK) Nikolai Alekseenko:
the Mode of isolation and the epidemiological situation is already reflected in the sales of all developers — the demand actually declined markedly, confirmed Director of the construction complex of GK “Grenelle” Andrew Simonov.
From April 13 to may 1 fully suspended construction in Moscow and the Moscow region — by regional authorities. Exceptions apply only to the construction of medical facilities, metro, airports, and roads. In other regions, the construction or ongoing, or are minor limitations, said Nikolai Alekseenko.
estimates of RUSK, one month of downtime costs developers in the Moscow region in the 13-14 billion direct costs: salaries, rent and so on. Thus, if the suspension of construction will last until the end of may, the direct loss of local developers will reach 25-30 billion rubles.
If the mode of isolation of citizens will last till July, to the direct loss will add loss of sales revenue, said Nikolai Alekseenko:
In such conditions may shift the timing of delivery of housing for many clients, which will lead to negative consequences for household budgets, says a member of the state Duma Committee on support of small and average business Alexander Jakubowski. But in such cases there is a mechanism of restoration of rights of citizens — via the Fund for the protection of rights of investors, said the expert.
About 80% of all working developers in the country, which is about 2.7 thousand companies will be in a rather difficult position. By the end of 2020 h��layer bankrupt developers may increase five times in comparison with annual indicators, reaching 1 thousand companies — third of the current developers. For comparison, last year, there were 189 new bankruptcies, said Nikolai Alekseenko.
— If the pessimistic forecast of the number of bankruptcies to the end of the year will come true, the number of new defrauded investors may be 135 thousand people, — he predicted.
If simple will last until June, developers across the country will lose 400-450 billion rubles. The number of bankruptcies by year end can reach 780 companies and defrauded investors — 90 thousand.
As he wrote “Izvestia”, at the end of last year in the registry of the deceived shareholders there were about 200 thousand people. Then the experts also predicted growth in their number — but this was associated with the transition to the escrow account. Now to the problems associated with the start of project financing, added simple.
On videoconferencing President Vladimir Putin with regional leaders on issues of combating coronavirus 28th of April the mayor of Moscow Sergey Sobyanin said that the Moscow region it is necessary to continue to adhere to the regime of self-isolation. Before that, the President announced the decision to make 6,7 and 8 may as a day off, to prolong the state of isolation until may 11, and the phased removal of restrictions after the deadline to enter depending on the situation in the region. He stressed that the peak of the epidemic has not yet passed and the country will face the difficult process of fighting infection.
Also Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that the resumption of construction projects in the Moscow region will be possible after passing the peak incidence COVID-19.
According to the forecasts of the respondents “Known” players in the industry, the ban on construction work in Moscow and the Moscow region, most likely, will last till the end of may holidays.
— In the current situation to resume work on housing projects in the Moscow region on may 1, is unlikely to succeed. A reasonable compromise between combating coronavirus and to minimize the losses the industry could be the decision to open construction on may 12 expressed the opinion the managing partner of “Vektorstroyfinans” Andrew Kolacinski.
most Likely, the opening will be gradual, different types of work on construction sites will start to resolve consistently, in strict compliance with safety requirements, according to the managing partner, shareholder GK “the Basis” Oleg Kolchenko.
Earlier, the Ministry of construction has developed recommendations for preventing the spread of coronavirus infection to construction companies, and the Federal service for employees in the sector. They are posted on the Ministry’s website.
among the recommendations, for example, the separation of all the workers and crews to minimi��initiate the contact, organization is “input filter” (control over health workers) and other measures, said Andrew Simonov.
In the first place can be allowed to work at the zero cycle and solid works — that is, those, long simple which potentially entails poor quality of the buildings, believed Oleg Kolchenko.
— For the construction industry it is vital to continue the work. Financial capacity to wait until the end of the epidemic there, — said General Director of SC “Perspektiva” Mikhail Ivanov.
the Closed construction also lead to deterioration of a criminogenic situation in the regions due a large number of unemployed workers, said the head of the brokerage and consulting company’s “TOP Idea” Oleg Stupenkov.
According to Alexander Jakubowski, taking into account measures of state support for the sector especially at risk projects business class as the key measures are aimed at the mass segment.
One of the previously declared by the President of the government support measures — preferential mortgage program. Buildings the mass market can be purchased at a rate of 6.5% — to 3 million rubles in the regions and to 8 million roubles in Moscow and St. Petersburg. will Also be capitalized by the Fund of assistance to those defrauded by 30 billion rubles allocated 12 billion rubles for the lending industry, the HOUSE. Russia will give state guarantees of the Ministry of Finance in the amount of 50 billion rubles for the purchase of apartments from developers. In addition, the increased availability of Bank loans to construction companies.
28 APR HOUSE. Russia has proposed tripling the amount of funds that will be directed to purchase apartments up to 150 billion rubles. As Marat Khusnullin said that the condition of subsidizing loans to developers will be the preservation of at least 90% of employees.
the Ministry of construction and the Moscow city hall to the query of “Izvestia” at the time of publication did not answer.
