Summer 2020 can be one of the five warmest in history of meteorological observations. On Monday said the head of the Ministry Dmitry Kobylkin. What will happen to the harvest in a severe drought and whether to wait to us of a famine of biblical proportions, as recently predicted the Executive Director of the world food programme, the UN David Beazley?
According to Dmitry Kobylkin, the head of the Ministry, the coming summer will be abnormally hot. This forecast gives not only our Roshydromet and foreign hydrometeorological station. Summer 2020 can be abnormally hot for all history of observations.
“If not the most abnormal fact in the top five will enter,” said he during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin speaking about the situation with the fires and floods in the regions.
the Situation actually develops extreme: first snowless winter, then hot summer, but you need to fear not only for forests threatened by fires. Drought adversely affects agriculture. Does this mean that we are waiting for a poor harvest, rising food prices or worse – hunger? Because recently the Executive Director of the world food programme, the UN David Beazley predicted that the pandemic coronavirus may come a “famine of biblical proportions”, and it will affect 30 countries.
-No prerequisites now to ensure that there will be global drought, I do not see, – said the “MK” the President of the Russian grain Union Arkady ZLOCHEVSKIY. – Information about what to Stavropol farmers offered to Finance an artificial increase of precipitation, allegedly due to lack of moisture in the soil, more like advertising the technology than information about the occurrence of actual risks for the harvest.
-And if the summer is abnormally hot, then what? How much we will lose grain and will be able to feed themselves?
In 2012, the wheat belt of the U.S. the drought was much tougher than in 2010. As a result, the Americans lost 10 percent of the crop. The 10 percent is precisely the walrus who walks depending on weather conditions.
-But is 10% enough?
-we Have a natural oscillation of the harvest occurs in this range almost every year. And it does not affect domestic supply. Last year we collected 121 million tons of grain, and in 2017 was a record harvest, then collected the 135.4 million tons. But we consume 80 million tons of grain a year, all the rest is exported. So the margin of safety is very large.
for example, for food safety you should not worry, but losing the crop if the summer really is abnormally hot, have a negative impact on the export potential of grain. Given that oil prices are falling all the time, lose in addition to black gold the money from the export of grainon – will be a serious blow to the economy.
-Yes, from season to season, we more or less exported, and these figures are always “walk” depending on the crop. If you talk about how from the point of view of global processes protected our agricultural technology, this primarily depends on the economic component, and not from the weather. Not to put pressure on the manufacturers, the excessive regulation by the States affected much more adversely than any natural disasters.
-Almost all sectors of the economy affected by the pandemic coronavirus. If she is having the same negative impact on the sowing campaign in southern regions have already started?
-as long as everything goes PAH-PAH is fine. There is a good Foundation for the winter, so even if the summer will be very hot, then the yield will decrease dramatically. The domestic market will be provided with food in any case. Not only biblical famine, but the grain deficit does not threaten us.
