Nearly 70 percent of entrepreneurs believe that the coronavirus pandemic will negatively affect the Russian economy. Primarily affected the sphere of public catering and tourism, on the second place – the sphere of trade and services. Also damages are the markets of transportation and entertainment. Every fifth entrepreneur believes that in one way or another will affect all industries.
In these difficult times, more entrepreneurs than ever are asking for support from the state in dire need of it, 73 percent of companies. Among small businesses such more – almost 80 percent. Among the expected measures to support the delay in the payment of taxes or their abolition. Entrepreneurs are asked to provide subsidies or financial support to introduce rent and vacation credit, to issue interest-free loans to maintain the business, to reduce or abolish mandatory contributions to the social insurance Fund.
– If the economic crises of the last decades have been local, or affected some sectors of the economy, we are witnessing an unprecedented situation when the whole world faces severe economic consequences of a pandemic coronavirus. The greatest risk of micro – and small businesses, noted the General Director of the Analytical center NAFI Guzeliya Imaeva. Current conditions dictate other rules. To save his company and to recover quickly after the crisis, businesses need maximum willingness to quickly adapt to changing conditions, finding new business models and change their product or service.
And there are such examples. For example, some enterprises for the production of cosmetics and clothing have shifted to the production of urgently needed now sanitizer and medical masks. Restaurants and cafes have adapted its menu to suit the work take-out only, some market players began to provide dinners to those businesses that continue to work. Tutors, business and image consultants, fitness trainers began to hold their classes online. Hotels and resorts are selling their services for the summer and autumn in the hope that the quarantine regime at that time would be finished. While some airlines offer to buy a ticket with an open date, which can be used also after the lifting of the restrictions related to the pandemic.
the Difference between this crisis and previous is that it has a non-financial nature – and under the most severe blow came a large company and banks (as in 2008 or 2014), and the small business and akreditovannye citizens losing their incomes, – said managing Director of macroeconomic analysis and forecasting “Expert RA” Anton tabah. – If your credit load (primarily foreign currency) of banks and corporations, all quite ��ositive, to bring assistance to the unemployed and losing financial stability of small and medium enterprises is a complex task. A few months of delays, can afford to build such a system.
As the expert, in the coming weeks and months, the government will employ the pandemic, and the Central Bank – maintaining the stability of banks and financial markets. Major decisions and expenditures to be postponed until June-July, when you will understand the scale of the damage from the virus and its consequences.
– If the bet on a quick global resuscitation’t work, you will begin a rapid recovery growth, and the economy will begin to satisfy pent-up demand, – said Anton tabah. – The damage in some sectors, e.g. in industry, recreation and intramural opportunities will be more long-term. But basically, the recovery will be fast, and the year will end with growth around zero.
In mid-March, the Institute “development Center” HSE started publishing daily economic stress index. During the week from 6 to 13 April 2020, its value remained at the level of 0,43 – according to experts, this indicates a high probability of recession. In particular, the deteriorating situation in the sphere of rail domestic transportation (this week and their volume was 6.4 percent lower than last year). Decreased electricity consumption (about 3.2 percent), indicating a fall in economic activity.
In the situation of epidemic feel good industries such as online shipping, manufacturers and sellers of medical protective and disinfectants. Small and medium businesses can be profitable to go online (if possible) and try to adapt to the current realities.
However, individual sectors of the pandemic, and related restrictions will benefit. As noted in the international discussion club “Valdai”, the first Deputy head of the Analytical center under the government of the Russian Federation Vladislav Onishchenko, the new reality will accelerate the development of digital technologies. What was expected to be completed in 10 years, it will introduce the twice as fast. This, in particular, will affect care in the online retail industry. And in some segments Russia is now the leader in digitalization, for instance in the remote interaction between the authorities, both among themselves and with business and citizens.
Vladislav Onishchenko also drew attention to the fact that technology can support a softer version of quarantine measures. People can easily socialize, receive services, including social, to buy goods – all from the comfort of home.
the survey showed NAFI, most entrepreneurs are pessimistic about the prospects of normalization of the situation in their industry. Almost half believe ��the situation will be back to normal in no earlier than a year, and another 14 percent believe that it will take two to three years. Among the “pessimists” are more firms established up to 2010 and past few economic crises. Among the “optimists” more young entrepreneurs under the age of 30 years.
