Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, appreciated the difficult situation with prices of oil and told how she may behave the ruble on:
– At the moment – said the expert, despite the agreements reached on the reduction of oil production by OPEC countries+, the oil market remains under pressure from falling demand and excess supply.
So, based on the experts the OPEC, global demand for oil this year will fall to 6.8 million barrels per day – up to 92,82 million. And the largest drop due to the shutdown of the largest economies in the Alliance experts expect in the second quarter.
Compounding the situation, and the ongoing struggle for the market between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Riyadh despite the friendly rhetoric continues to dump on the traditionally Russian markets. For example, to Asian buyers for may delivery of crude oil, the Kingdom lowered prices by 3-5 dollars.
special offers, the Saudis were prepared for oil refiners of Europe, thereby increasing supplies to Turkey, Italy, France, Greece and Poland. Although Russian oil companies have the advantage of cheaper logistics (Russian oil delivered to European refineries via pipelines), the aggressive actions of a competitor will definitely worsen the already difficult situation with selling the oil.
However, in addition to the fundamental factors that affect the pricing of oil, commodity and stock exchanges is present purely speculative moment, can often have a huge impact on the price of oil. So, this past Monday, the price of the may futures contract for U.S. light crude oil for the first time fell to minus 40.32 USD per barrel.
the Collapse, in addition to weak global demand for energy and rapidly filling oil storage tanks, were caused by the actions of large speculators, do not estimate your abilities and forced to sell the previously purchased contracts at any price.
it is Worth noting that the derivatives market and, in particular, futures contracts on oil, the speed at times exceeds the market of physical oil. In other words, on the stock exchanges in a short time can be bought and sold as much oil as it is not all together in the world’s oil producers.
Dramaticheskaya unfolding in the oil market could not affect the exchange rate. However, despite sinking into the abyss of oil quotations, the Russian currency was able to demonstrate the relative resistance. And this fact suggests that bidders are counting on a quick end to panic on commodity exchanges.
With the development such a scenario mark 77,34 rubles per dollar can to be a local limit to the depreciation of the ruble. However, if the price of Brent will go below $ 19 per barrel, the dollar-ruble will go to storm levels 79-80 rubles per dollar.
