“the 2008-2009 Crisis began with a financial turmoil, then moved to the real economy, now, it all started in healthcare, and then the blow fell again on the real sector – analysts McKinsey. – First of all through measures strict isolation necessary to save lives, but also influenced the whole company and of each person individually.”
by considering two main scenario. If to complete fight the virus will need two or three months of strict isolation, unemployment this year will increase to 7.6 percent. To pre-crisis level of 6.3% will she be back in a year.
If the victory over coronavirus will take more time, the unemployment rate will reach 11.2% and return to pre-crisis levels, it can only by 2024.
At the same time, analysts say McKensey, unemployment has a negative multiplier effect on the economy. Falling incomes, falling demand, reduced sales, reduced profits of the companies – all this leads to the decrease of the tax base and the state remain without the funds they need to help their citizens and businesses. In a society of growing income inequality, it provokes depression in the unemployed, conditions arise for the growth of crime, increased pressure on health care and so on. Therefore, authorities, and businesses must now take measures to minimize the effects COVID-19 for the economy.
the Greatest risk will lose their jobs with the young people to 24 years of age, and no matter in what sphere they are engaged. Further, the danger with a high degree of probability lies in wait for nearly 55 million people whose activities are associated with close contact between people. This can be, for example, store employees, chefs or actors. Approximately 15 million Europeans were in the group with medium risk of losing their jobs due to the effects of coronavirus. People who work with or have close contact only with colleagues or patients, machine operators, construction workers, doctors.
In relative safety may feel that 160 million European workers: first responders, clerks, architects and journalists. However, if the crisis developed to the fullest, they also have a very hard time.
