Pandemic coronavirus in a short time has caused enormous damage to the world economy. For Russia the situation is aggravated by falling oil prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin, during an online meeting with the leaders of the EEU, called for a “extraordinary measures” to combat the spread of coronavirus.
the Consequences of a pandemic, gave rise to various versions of “extraordinary measures” that are offered for the salvation of the Russian economy. For example, the Commissioner for the protection of the rights of entrepreneurs under the President of the Russian Federation Boris Titov proposed exemption of small business from paying taxes for three years.
the leader of the Communists Gennady Zyuganov considers that it is necessary to nationalize “strategic sectors and mineral resource base”, to the end of the pandemic, they have not got for a pittance to foreign speculators.
Liberal economists, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of political Sciences Sergei Guriev and Professor, University of Chicago Konstantin Sonin suggested to give money to the Russians “just because” and start the so-called “quantitative easing”. In other words, to print rubles and to distribute them to people in aid. Experts believe that the amount of support can vary from 4 to 10 percent of Russia’s GDP.
Sounds attractive, but what’s the catch? What allowed the Federal reserve system of the United States and the European Central Bank is not allowed the Central Bank of Russia. The ruble is not a reserve currency like the dollar and the Euro. The oil is sold in dollars, and the sharp drop in oil prices has reduced the inflow of currency into the country. In addition, the collapsed foreign investment. And if to call things by their names, the speculators left the market collapsing.
So, the already badly sagging “wood” will fall even lower, if you run the “printing press”. The effect of the payments to the population as a result of “quantitative easing” will be quickly offset by inflation and rising prices. In the market attempts to freeze prices for various categories of goods will lead to shortages and a growth in “black market”. Demand will shrink. Manufacturers and retailers will demand new rounds of “quantitative easing”. In the fall of foreign exchange earnings and growth of the ruble supply, the dollar will strengthen. If strongly to be fond of the process, you can go the way of Zimbabwe.
the Distribution of money to the population, as suggested by liberal economists, it is possible to organize not by “quantitative easing”, but at the expense of redistribution of wealth, levelling of income. Multimillion-dollar salaries of top managers of state corporations will have to go. Also, as a miserable “living wage”. In EU countries, high incomes are subject to high taxes. Some run from them, changing citizens��your like Gerard Depardieu, for example. But overall the system works. Social stratification in the EU does not look so dramatic as in Russia.
But that may involve the preservation of capitalism. However, now the whole world capitalist system is in deep crisis. Offer Zyuganov on nationalization, in fact, mean a return to the Soviet economic model: planned economy; the state Bank, under state control; a ban on the export of capital from the country; withdrawal of foreign currency deposits of the population; rationing of food and essential services for the period of the pandemic. After the end of the pandemic can continue the course for a return to fixed prices for goods and services and collapsing the remnants of the market economy.
Interestingly, with calls to return the card system are the representatives of business associations, which unites manufacturers and suppliers of various types of food. They appealed to the country leaders with the offer as soon as possible to return to the practice of ration cards. Business urges the government to return to the Soviet distribution system! What could would come to a head a few months ago?
the recipe of rescue of economy does not lack, but if you start from the model economy and the social structure that has developed since the collapse of the USSR, in real scenarios a bit.
the Export of raw materials and minerals all these years was the main source of replenishment of the budget. Corporation and close to the power of the oligarchs in control of key sectors of the economy: energy, financial, industrial, agricultural. Small and medium businesses a few years showed a tendency to decrease. Coronavirus and does sweeps small business to such force majeure entrepreneurs were not ready.
In terms of the collapse in domestic demand and world oil prices, the government will save the basis of the economic order, i.e. the state Corporation and businesses of the oligarchs. True, not the fact that will save the oligarchs themselves. Coronavirus “zeroed” all previous agreements, turned the world upside down. In the new reality will be the new political and social contracts.
the Existing model is often referred to as “state capitalism.” The oligarchs formally own private property, but at any time could lose it if you do not find a common language with the authorities. This is one side of the coin. The other side – the possibility to access the development budget.
the Scheme worked successfully, but the new conditions may be revised. Without large state subsidies and public procurement the oligarchs, the crisis is unlikely to overcome. The enterprises belonging to them can be saved through the mechanism of nationalization. And the oligarchs themselves out to be unnecessary intermediaries. When the economy is under state control, the “agents market” is no longer needed. The state is able to control distribution, not a market economy. By the state planning Commission, not the exchange. The government will implement the “national projects” through the Corporation. Economic growth should be to provide officials, not private businessmen. Very similar to the “great construction of socialism” in the Soviet Union.
Small business in terms of planning and distribution of the economy is a peripheral place. The dream of “middle class”, which will be the majority, were left far in the last decade. The bourgeoisie as a class in Russia never formed. Therefore political representation of the Russian “bourgeois” is not. No restrictions and manipulation of authorities with electoral legislation would be unable to serve as a barrier for getting into the state Duma of the bourgeois parties, if we were the bourgeoisie. But it is not. So there were bourgeois parties.
Coronavirus has made possible what only recently seemed impossible. Request all segments of the population on government assistance brings us back to the socialist past in one leap. “Extraordinary measures” demanded by the majority, is the equal distribution of wealth. The distribution function is vested in the state.
Planned economy. An equalizing system of distribution of wealth to the population. Closed borders. The propaganda apparatus. All this has been. And returned with unprecedented speed. Dreams of returning to the Soviet Union becoming a reality. As noted at the time, mark TWAIN: “When what we really long wait finally comes, it seems to be a surprise”.
Because Russia’s history is cyclical, the approach to the second round and the revival of the USSR 2.0 seems almost inevitable. However, the prospect of the leap from capitalism to socialism loomed in front of other countries. Professor school of public relations the University of Texas (USA) James Galbraith, the son of one of the authors of the “theory of convergence” by John Galbraith, recently said that after the completion of the pandemic coronavirus have to abandon capitalism: “Capitalism and decentralization the past 40 years may not survive this crisis, will have to build a new system, you may need to build state socialism, or make some hybrid solution.” In his article in The Guardian on 25 March this year, Galbraith have listed a set of emergency measures, including the restriction of sales of commodities in one hand and, if necessary, the regulation of prices. Galbraith refers to the experience during the great depression and the Second world war.
the Prospect of victory with��of Alisma worldwide on the eve of the 150 year anniversary of the leader of the world proletariat is a powerful argument for the advocates of Marxism-Leninism. But the benefit from this will be China, which largely embodied the ideas of the convergence of capitalism and socialism and, according to James Galbraith, will suffer from the crisis caused by the pandemic, to a lesser extent than the United States. But it does have to go the hard way from the collapse of the “capitalist experiment” to the new version of Soviet socialism.
