Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Natalia Milchakova, Deputy head of IAC “Alpari”, said the condition of the ruble will come to the may day.
– oil Prices after signed in the first decade of April the transaction of OPEC+ showed short-term growth. But in the second half of the month of growth stopping, – the expert warns. – If oil prices in the month of April will continue to grow and move in the direction of $ 35 per barrel, the ruble will continue to strengthen.
If, on the contrary, prices will move towards $ 20 per barrel or even below, the strengthening of the ruble will not have to wait. Not even active sales of foreign currency conducted by the Bank of Russia. However, a new collapse of the ruble, we do not expect.
on 24 April will be published the decision of the Bank of Russia on interest rates. You have two options. First – maintain the current key rate at 6 percent (we estimate the probability of only 40 percent). The second is the reduction of the key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.75 per cent (the probability of such a development estimated at 60 percent). The reaction of the ruble exchange rate can be ambiguous, and primarily depend on the nature of the accompanying review of the regulator.
And on April 29 its decision on interest rates will announce the U.S. Federal reserve. The interest rate corridor of the Federal reserve is likely to remain unchanged at the level of 0-0,25 percent. This decision, if adopted, will not have a significant impact on the dollar. Even contribute to a small reduction, as the alternative would be a small increase in interest rates, which would strengthen the dollar. And if the dollar will not grow, the rouble has a chance to strengthen.
In General, till may projected the dollar in a broad range, from 72 to 80 rubles, and the Euro at the level 78-84 rubles.
