the New deal OPEC+ will operate for two years. According to the Minister of energy of Russia Alexander Novak, the country’s Alliance agreed to reduce oil production by 10 million barrels per day. In the framework of this agreement, 23 countries (including Russia and Saudi Arabia) agreed to reduce output, starting from may 1 to 10 million barrels per day. Another 5 million “barrels” will be removed from the US market, Canada, Norway and other countries that previously had not formally part of the OPEC+.
many of the parties to the agreement the agreements seems to have brought a breath of relief. According to the press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin believes that the global economy without an agreement on oil will stand on the threshold of uncontrolled chaos, with the energy prices.
meanwhile, the world oil market does not hurry to react to the compromise of the extractive powers of the three continents. Immediately after the announcement of the decision of OPEC+, the quotations of “black gold” dropped by 5% and again slipped to $30 per barrel.
According to the Director of Fund of power development Sergey pikina, do not overly rely on the latest decision of OPEC+, despite the fact that it was encased in extremely hard conditions. “Before the parties were able to come to a compromise, a number of influential industry experts noted that without a decision on domestic oil production will have to conserve up to 50% of the production wells,” said the expert.
However, even the new agreement has a very doubtful assistance to the Russian oil industry. “Naturally, the company will close the least significant of the well, leaving the most attractive assets. In addition, they will have to pay twice as much for oil storage, which is currently overcrowded. All this will lead to a drop in oil production in our country for the year by 15%. As they say a number of heads of national oil companies, and that is perhaps the “Brest peace” that Russia had to conclude with foreign producers. Infrastructuthose with the reason why to produce more than they can deliver, because the demand will recover very slowly,” — says Pikin.
a Separate question: how the deal will affect the domestic markets, particularly foreign exchange. “For the ruble is the agreement OPEC+ is still good news. It is obvious that in the second quarter of 2020, oil will be traded at a modest level of $30-35 per barrel. Accordingly, we need to focus on 70 to 72 rubles per dollar. This range in the absence of external unexpected shocks will be relevant in may and early summer. By the end of the year orientirueshsya $50 per barrel, and the dollar will then go into the range of 65-70 rubles. The panic on the currency market stopped, and started. The ruble got off lightly” soothes the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev.
Doctor of Economics Igor Nikolayev, for his part, is sure that it is not necessary to relax. Negotiations on the settlement of oil prices is reminiscent of the game in “peepers”: each of the parties says it is ready to reduce commodity production, but if she will do, no guarantees. “In order to promise the decline in production, it is necessary to provide conclusive evidence of payment surplus. If such a format of negotiations will remain, the price of oil will slide to $20-25, and the Russian budget faces a deficit and have to be replenished from the national welfare Fund, which, in turn, will melt away,” — said the expert.
