The cuts to ordinary life are so serious that many people think, according to Corona will not be the same as it was before. However, this change in consciousness will not be permanent. After the end of the output block, we will leave our apartments and houses, drive to work, visit friends, celebrate together and travel the world. Maybe even more than ever, in the sense of new freedom.
“de-globalise”-Trend is by Corona
is Also accelerating in other areas, Corona is not a paradigm shift, but it will accelerate existing Trends. This applies first and foremost to all the processes that are today summarized under the Heading “de-globalise”. Especially in comparison to the Great financial crisis, the Lack of international cooperation is obvious. Trade barriers and border controls, protection of one’s own company and technology, the pursuit of self-sufficiency for “strategic” products from pills to batteries: All of these protectionist impulses were already visited before – and will win according to the Corona thickness. The Person
Ludovic Subran, chief economist of Allianz SE. Prior to that, he was chief economist at Euler Hermes, the world’s largest credit insurer.
This also applies to the efforts of companies to reduce delivery chains and to reduce dependencies. The disintegration of the closely linked world economy into two great political and technological blocks hardly seems unstoppable. Currently, it seems that Europe could establish itself as a third Power. But still a remnant remains to hope, that the Corona-crisis – in contrast to the Euro crisis all hitting at the same time, not mutual blame, is a Moment of new solidarity in Europe.
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as globalization to the losers of the crisis, the state is the big winner. But here, as in populism and protectionism have already moved long before the relationships between the individual and society, between the market and the state in favor of the latter. But Corona, once again brings a massive boost, without the state and its giant utilities, the economy would be in front of the abyss.
This new self-awareness will make to the crisis is noticeable, be it in the formulation of industrial policy goals, or the provision of public goods, for example, in the health and pension system, or in the fight against climate change. Everywhere is expected to the state are preferred over private-sector solutions. Similar applies to the handling of personal data – their value to society in the fight against the pandemic shows just impressive (at least in Asia). Instead of in the system dispute with China and his state betting model capitalist his liberal and liberal values to emphasize, it is to be feared, that the West is acting in the future tend to be authoritarian. Exclusive equity Webinar with Beate Sander
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“Japanification” of the Western world
Here, the “strong state” post Corona stands on feet of clay. His new influence is based in a sea of debt. With Corona, the “Japanification is completed” in the Western world. In view of the rather moderate growth prospects in Europe, not least against the Background of the such as in Japan, negative demographic development – will be well also here, the Central Bank, which assures the sustainability of debts. The “Modern monetary theory” greetings.
And yet, in a further point would be humility, and a return attached to the market: it is Still unclear whether the planned aid to achieve the intended effect; the promise of no business to go because of Corona broke, can hardly comply with. Because the Central Bank has to Exercise therein, to flood the markets with liquidity, and the state, with guarantees of protection screens to span, but quickly, directly and to distribute non-bureaucratic funds, is a different task; the processes and structures are often lacking.
It is taking revenge for that in the long years since the SARS epidemic nothing was done, an effective pandemic risk protection to build, for example, in the Form of a private hedge with government Reinsurance.
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Ex ante pandemic risk protection or ad hoc measures of assistance differ
cynics may argue that an ex ante pandemic risk protection or ad hoc measures of assistance were ultimately the same: At the end of the state always pays. This Argument overlooks, however, two crucial aspects: firstly, the protection will remain in a pandemic-insurance, the private insurer up to a certain amount of the risk involved; so, you have a strong self-interest, to the Insured for prevention and preparation stop. On the other – and more crucial – make the private insurers in such a System a quasi-line system: you perform the examination of the claims and make the payments. And in contrast to the state, insurers have the necessary expertise and the appropriate processes and structures; advanced systems work almost in real time. Financial support is promised not only fast, but also efficient and precisely done.
this is a message that goes beyond the case of the Corona-crisis is. A state is always really strong – i.e., in the position to reach his goals – if he’s expertise and the power of the private economic agents own. Whether fighting a pandemic, the development of vaccines, the fight against climate change or the limitation of old-age poverty: The challenges faced by today’s companies are overwhelmed by a Dimension, the individual actors in the economy quickly. Intelligent solutions are needed for private-public partnerships. It is the choice between a weak-strong state – the want always creates the Best but only a little – and a strong weak state the uses of the forces of the market for the company’s objectives in a profitable way.
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