According to research by the University of Goettingen (Germany), the percentage of detected cases to the alleged total number is 50 in South Korea, a 15.6 in Germany, 3,5 in Italy, 1.7 in Spain and 1.7 in the US and 1.2 in the UK
James Gathany / CDC In the United States, according to the study authors, should be more than 10 million people are diagnosed with COVID-19, Spain – more than five million, in Italy – about three million in the UK – around two million
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Official data on infection with coronavirus COVID-19 may be underestimated, study shows University of Goettingen (Germany), publishedlikovna in the journal the Lancet.
the Percentage of detected cases to the alleged total number is 50 in South Korea, a 15.6 in Germany, 3,5 in Italy, 1.7 in Spain and 1.7 in the US and 1.2 in the UK.
So, as of the end of March, the infected could be tens of millions of people in the world. Discovered was only from 6% to 15% of the actual number of infections. In the United States, according to the study authors, should be more than 10 million people are diagnosed with COVID-19, Spain – more than five million in Italy – about three million in the UK – about two million.Insufficient and delayed diagnosis explains why in some countries the number of victims of the pandemic are so high, and the real scale of a pandemic is underestimated.
To identify the true number of cases of coronavirus, the researchers used the assessment of mortality from COVID-19 and the average time from infection to death.
Meanwhile, according to the Institute of Health Metrics and evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle, published April 7, we are talking about “first wave” of the pandemic. According to their forecasts, according to “German wave”, overall mortality rates in Europe will have on the third week of April, despite the fact that the peak of mortality has been passed in Spain and Italy.
Scientists estimate that the total number of deaths from the coronavirus will be in Europe 151 680. In the USA they predict 81 766 deaths. Close to the peak of the epidemic, the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria and Luxembourg.
the Situation in the UK, Germany, Norway and Greece, the American researchers consider an early stage. According to estimates IHME in the UK due to the coronavirus can die about 66 thousand people by the beginning of August. Peak mortality there will have on April 17.
Germany, American scientists called on 19 April as the day with the highest mortality rate. Here up to August 8 is projected to 802 deaths in RESultati of the epidemic.
To conduct the study, IHME collected data on the number of cases, data on the number of deceased by age of the population in Italy, Spain, China, South Korea and the United States.
According to the latest official data, the number of infected people in the world reached 1 million 347 thousand people, nearly 75 thousand died, 286 thousand recovered.
