the March rate of the Russian currency was shocked: in the beginning of the month for the dollar was about 66 rubles, and in the most critical moments of the month he passes far beyond 80 rubles. The main reason was the “perfect storm” in the form of cancellation of the transaction OPEC+ and, as a consequence, the rapid fall in oil prices (more than 50 to almost $ 20 per barrel Brent), and the deceleration of the world economy because of the unprecedented quarantine measures against coronavirus.
the Bank of Russia has launched an online conference on the situation in Finance
the Bank of Russia has taken a number of measures to smooth out fluctuations in the financial market, including started early sale of foreign currency in terms of the budget rules. Also, the Central Bank additionally sells currency from the Fund received from the sale of the savings Bank to the government. Daily sales of currency of the Central Bank vary, but the average is about 13 billion rubles.
Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov emphasized that the decision of the Central Bank can stabilize the ruble against other currencies. The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina added, however, that the regulator has neither the psychological, nor any other of the ruble, at which the Central Bank started to operate in the market more actively. The ruble exchange rate is floating, but the Central Bank has the tools to remove the threats to financial stability, Nabiullina noted.
Support policies on the part of the Bank of Russia to keep the ruble from a significant weakening, and measures the largest regulators (basically almost zero base rates and the actual provision of liquidity to markets in the format of “as long as necessary”. – Approx. “RG”) will support financial markets around the world that sooner or later will encourage investors to emerging markets, says head analytical Department of the Bank “Saint Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin.
In his opinion, a very limited capacity and further reduce oil prices. Moreover, he expects a gradual recovery in oil prices in the second quarter. Thus, in the medium term it is possible to speak about strengthening of the ruble, but in the first half of April, the rate is likely to remain in the range of 78 to 82 rubles per dollar without significant changes in the external environment, says Kazulin. The risks of a new wave of sales will still continue, he adds.
Named conditions for the restoration of the currency market
the Main threat for the ruble now is coming from the oil market, says principal analyst at Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev. Now it is led by demand, which shrank dramatically due to quarantine measures against the pandemic coronavirus. According to various estimates, in April, global oil demand could fall by 20-30 million barrels a day, and that 20-30% of global consumption, said Vasilyev. According to him, in April, the weakness of the oil market will persist and the exchange rate will gravitate to the level of 80-82 to the us dollar and the Euro 89-91.
In the case of the adoption of the new agreement on reduction of oil production between OPEC+ and the US and slowing growth in the number infected with the coronavirus in the world by the end of April the exchange rate of the Russian currency may to get stronger to 75-77 rubles against the dollar and 82-84 of the ruble in tandem with the Euro, admits Vasiliev.
In General, the financial authorities in Russia have accumulated a lot of experience of external shocks, and the Russian economy and the banking system in recent years has adapted to dramatic changes in the external environment, adds Vasiliev.
