“Germany is only at the beginning of the epidemic”. This sobering statement is repeated Lothar Wieler on a regular basis. The head of the Robert Koch Institute makes it clear in every press conference, that us the highlights of the Corona-infections is yet to come. When, this is the question experts were not able to answer so far.
scientists at the Johannes-Gutenberg-University of Mainz and the University of Hamburg wanted to provide clarity. You calculated, how long the epidemic in Germany is going to last. Using a mathematical model they developed two possible scenarios: In the normal, more pessimistic scenario, the epidemic up to August, in a optimistic even just to July.
Normal scenario: peak in June, end in August
The prognosis: Should the ban on contact can be lifted after Easter, could reach epidemic the beginning of June, its peak . To date, approximately then 1.3 million people at the same time , the case would be made ill then fall, and go in August against Null . In September, there would then be no new infections and more.
Johannes-Gutenberg-University of Mainz, The “pessimistic” scenario sees a peak of infections at the beginning of June – as long as the contact block not be extended.
The illustration shows the course of the epidemic in three variants:
- without any public intervention
- with contact block (this also includes the closure of public facilities, schools, kindergartens, etc.)
- with extended contact
In your model of lock, the scientists assumed, that Ill recover after an average of 14 days. The measures are and contact block after Easter for another month to maintain, it would move the peak of the epidemic, as well as the end of a month.
Public measures flat to the increase of diseases from
“the Public measures, such as contact surfaces from prohibition to the rise of the disease temporarily, and extend the duration of the epidemic,” the scientists explain. “In the tip are affected in the optimistic scenario, up to 200,000 people, in the normal scenario, the values are around a Million.” The researchers assume that in the normal scenario long-term six percent of the population (reported to have been ill).
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For your model, the scientists divided the German population into four groups:
- healthy without the infection
- Covid-19
- ill healthy after recovery/after (approximately) symptom-free infection
- deceased
As a starting point, researchers chose the 24. February 2020, was discovered on this day, for the first time, a Diseased from the Robert Koch-Institute. Their model describes the development up to the end of the year, as the base were used, the data from the RKIs. “Using appropriate statistical methods, we can trace with our model groups the development of the Diseased in the data accurately,” explain the scientists. “Our model describes the development of 24. February up to the current edge (almost entirely) precisely.“ Product recommendation (display)
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High level of underreporting was taken into account
however, we must not forget that there are a high number of unreported cases. the the Figures from The Robert Koch-Institute show how many people in Germany have actually infected with Sars-CoV-2, nor how many of those patients then. Therefore, the researchers introduced additional parameters to be able to for the coming months is as exact as possible prediction:
“It is believed that infection with corona virus results in only about 20 percent to symptoms,” explain the scientists. The second piece of Information needed by the researchers: The percentage of at the end of the epidemic, infected persons. “It is usually assumed that this is roughly 50 to 60 percent,” the scientists explain further. Both Figures were, however, associated with great uncertainty.
“together we Take these two values, then we come immediately to a result. If 60% are long-term infected and 20% of those Infected become ill, then we come to 12 per cent Diseased after the end of the epidemic.“ The scientists assume that the disease only about half is reported, and the other half go for example to the doctor or the symptoms would be classified as a “common cold”. “Then are at the end of the epidemic, six per cent reported Ill for Germany.” That would be 83.1 million inhabitants, approximately five million Sufferers.
The Alternative: “The optimistic Hubei scenario,”
Due to the uncertainty of the data, the scientists created a second scenario: The “optimistic Hubei-scenario”. To do this, they looked at the data from South Korea and China. In Hubei, the number of reported Patients was the total population, approximately one out of 1000. “To be a little more careful and to compare the Numbers better with the previous parameters, we lift this to a value of 6 by 1000.” Thus, the epidemic in Germany would not be at the end of six percent of the total population, but only 0.6 per cent, ill .
Johannes-Gutenberg-University of Mainz, The “optimistic Hubei scenario” sees a culmination of the infections in mid-may.
in This scenario, it is also available in three variants, the block Contact after Easter repealed could move the top to mid-may , the end in July . “This would be to explain to the 200,000 at the same time Diseased on a level that would make our health system a great challenge”, the scientist. The measures would be extended for a further six weeks, would reduce the number of Sufferers in the tip to 120,000. “However, the extended the ,” said the researchers.
scientists emphasize that the first, pessimistic scenario corresponds to the standard assumptions of the epidemiologists and the public health system, would severely strain: “The number of people Affected would go in this pessimistic scenario, in the millions.”
researchers hope the positive Trends
the hope is that this scenario is confirmed. The Federal States-measures from the 13. March would guess the growth of the Diseased almost in half. “could improve If the positive Trend continues in the scenarios.”
in Addition, they hope the immunization in the population is progressing faster, as in the “normal” flu epidemics. “Then, too, the epidemic could go faster at the end.” Further, even more stringent health measures could also lead to an even stronger decline in growth rates.
However, the economic costs would be considerable, first estimates are frightening. “It’s worth a Consideration would be to lock the Contact to the population to restrict groups that appear to have feared most a strong history of a CoV-2-disease.” The scientists of Germany-wide backups, enable, for example, a shopping service and personal-contact encounters.
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