In the German car industry is threatening from the point of view of industry expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the loss of more than 100,000 jobs through the Corona of a crisis. The demand is likely to plummet this year by 15 percent, and according to the experience from the financial market crisis, the catching-up process will take no more than ten years, writes the Professor in a study, which is present the German press Agency.
In the German plants there is an overnight excess capacity from 1.3 to 1.7 million vehicles. Short-time working money, bridge only short periods. No company is able to maintain spare production capacity for many years. Therefore, 100,000 of the today of 830,000 jobs at car manufacturers and suppliers in Germany were threatened “under optimistic assumptions”, wrote Dudenhöffer.
dpa/Jan Woitas/dpa-Central picture/dpa employees at the BMW plant in Leipzig, working in the Assembly of the i8.
The car production in Germany was last year, from 5.1 to 4.7 million vehicles, declined. Of the economy researchers attributed this year with a sales decline of 15 percent in Germany, 20 percent in China, 25 percent in France and the United States and 30 percent in Italy. Thus, the production in Germany is expected to shrink “at a more optimistic forecast, to 3.8 million vehicles. Under a pessimistic scenario, we expect only 3.4 million vehicles.”
“The reason for this are problems in the supply chain, but the lack of demand,” said Dudenhöffer: The auto industry had “a serious, long-term demand problem”. The economic growth after the debt Crash of 2009, let expect that the USA would need at least 10 years to find a connection to the year 2019. In Europe, too little to speak for a growth Boom for the Corona-crisis: “In the past, the opposite was true in the case of the major crises in Europe.” In order to revive the demand, suggested dudenhöffer, the Suspend value-added tax or a negative tax. All the important messages to the Coronavirus in the FOCUS Online Newsletter. Subscribe now.
Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease, FOCUS Online/Wochit Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease
/with Agency material
