We know that many people will be watching the news closely today, and until the results start coming in this evening, there will be a lot of election anxiety. To help you stay informed, we spoke with Mark Hand, a political science professor at the University of Texas at Arlington, about what to pay attention to on Election Day.
Before the polls close, Hand will be monitoring allegations of voter fraud. While voter fraud is rare, he will be keeping an eye on claims made by Republicans, which could potentially lead to delays in the counting process. There is also concern about the possibility of violence, especially as the day progresses.
Once the polls close, Hand will focus on early voting returns in key swing states such as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. He will be particularly interested in seeing how Donald Trump and Kamala Harris perform in Florida compared to expectations. Hand will be following the results on various news outlets such as Fox News, The New York Times, The Associated Press, and the Texas Tribune.
Hand also has a keen interest in the results coming from Tarrant County, which he sees as a bellwether for the rest of Texas. He believes that the results in Tarrant County will reflect the trends in the state and shape future election cycles. Additionally, he is curious about the breakdown of the Texas state House in the next session, as Democrats hope to gain enough seats to impact legislative decisions.
Lastly, Hand expects to see a pattern known as the “red mirage” and the “blue shift” in the voting returns. Smaller, more Republican-leaning counties tend to report their results earlier, giving the initial impression of a Republican lead. However, as larger, more Democratic-leaning counties report their results, this lead can shift. This phenomenon caught many by surprise in 2020 and is expected to occur again.
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