Marketing professor and entrepreneur Scott Galloway’s predictions are legendary. Now he dared to look ahead to 2023 at the Burda digital conference DLD. He believes in tech stocks and in a new stock market star from Germany.
TikTok instead of Tesla: The US marketing professor Scott Galloway sees the shares of Chinese Internet companies before a high. Tesla, on the other hand, he predicts a halving of the share price – despite increasing sales and profits. In a humorous lecture at the Munich digital conference DLD, he looked at the tech and stock market year 2023. And that, according to Galloway, will be tough.
150,000 jobs were cut at tech and media companies worldwide last year. The trend will continue this year: Amazon, Cisco and Adobe have already announced that they will be cutting jobs. Galloway also sees signs of layoffs at other tech companies. Meta, Pinterest, Google’s parent company Alphabet – in many companies, personnel costs are growing faster than sales, which puts pressure on profitability. Simple conclusion: the costs have to go down.
According to Galloway, investors are happy about what employees fear: Fewer employees mean more earnings per share. He predicts that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will have their most profitable quarters of all time this year.
Galloway also confirms good prospects for Chinese Internet titles – especially the TikTok group ByteDance. Its value will exceed the trillion dollar mark in 2023. The Chinese company only needed five years to gain a billion users – three years faster than Instagram, four years faster than Facebook. The usage time is even more impressive: TikTok users spend 100 minutes a day on the platform.
Tesla investors, on the other hand, will continue to suffer in 2023, and Galloway expects the price to halve again. Not because the electric car pioneer is doing poorly, the company is more concerned with the valuation, which is still too high.
Galloway analyses: Tesla’s price is 35 times higher than profits – for German car manufacturers such as VW, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche, the factor is only between 4 and 5. Because their share of electric cars is increasing, and with it the competition for Tesla is getting tougher will, the Tesla price will continue to fall.
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Unsurprisingly, the firm’s belief in artificial intelligence is widely touted in the digital scene as the most important tech trend of the year (if not the decade). A company based in Munich could benefit from this. The startup Celonis, founded in 2011, develops AI-based software that analyzes business processes in companies and searches for optimization potential.
So far, the company has not officially announced that it wants to go public, but one of the founders has already expressed a fundamental interest in an IPO in a newspaper interview. Galloway is leaning out of the window in this regard and believes that this will be the most important tech IPO of 2023 or 2024.
DLD Munich is Hubert Burda Media’s digital conference. It takes place from May 12th to 14th. DLD Munich’s motto is “Beyond now”. The keynote speeches and panels touch on all the important topics of the digital revolution. All further information and the detailed program can be found here.
But beware: Scott Galloway does not want his “Predictions” to be understood as concrete instructions for action – rather as food for thought. After all: Of his nine predictions for 2022, six came true. But Galloway also said straight out on the DLD stage in front of a few hundred listeners: “Predictions are a pretty shitty business.”
