Rising prices, interest rate developments, protests in Chinese cities – a wide range of topics was covered with “Markus Lanz” on Wednesday evening. It was particularly exciting when it came to the “dependence on China” complex.
The group not only talked about the controversial Hamburg port deal, but also about the fact that more and more German industries are relying on the Chinese market.
Possibly a mistake, said an expert in the ZDF talk – not least because the Asian state is struggling with major problems.
In addition to China’s zero-Covid policy, political tensions between Taiwan and the People’s Republic are causing regular protests and popular outrage. Added to this is the concern of many economists that the local technology sector could continue to suffer from overly one-sided economic relations.
“I wouldn’t bet so much on the Chinese market,” explained the economist Rüdiger Bachmann at Lanz. In fact, however, Germany is in the process of making itself even more dependent on China than is already the case.
Bachmann explained that China “needed us” to secure an economic respite, only then “was there a mutual dependency agreement”.
In the meantime, an end to growth is in sight – also because China is heading for a huge demographic problem: “By the end of this century, the population will have halved. There they will have the same proportion of people over 65 as there are people between 24 and 65, and these are the people who work. China gets a huge pension problem.”
This also has consequences for the German export economy. After all, an older society needs more services and health care – and fewer cars.
“It is not clear whether German companies will be able to sell what they want to sell on the Chinese market in the future,” warned expert Bachmann.
“German companies should think twice about investing in China,” agrees Hamburg’s Mayor Peter Tschentscher. In retrospect, Germany was too careless and didn’t take a closer look at China, the SPD politician practiced with “Markus Lanz”. Tschentscher said: “We have been too uncritical of China in recent years.”
At the same time, however, he defended the controversial investment deal in a terminal in the Port of Hamburg and criticized Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck in the context.
A total of six federal ministries, including the one led by Habeck, had spoken out against the original deal, whereupon the Chinese state-owned company Cosco decided to take a stake of 24.9 percent, which was strategically less questionable. Tschentscher complained on ZDF: “My impression is that there was an implausible discussion between the ministries.”
For Tschentscher, the Chinese participation in the Tollerort terminal is still of great importance: “The shipping companies take cargo to where they are involved in terminals,” he explained, praising the Chancellor’s far-sightedness.
“Mr. Scholz knows how the Port of Hamburg is organized. That may differentiate him from some federal politicians who have commented on it,” said Tschentscher about his party friend and predecessor in the office of Hamburg mayor.
“There are many things we need to think about. But in maritime shipping, in moving containers across the world, we don’t have systemic dependence on China,” the mayor said. According to him, a new China strategy is absolutely necessary, which must be “made European”. Chinese participations in European ports are “common in the industry”, as the examples of Rotterdam and Antwerp show.
Banks have evaluated the residential real estate sales of the past few weeks and have found that prices are crumbling across the board. They give way, especially in overheated markets like Munich. Anyone who has to sell should hurry: there is currently no end in sight to the fall in prices. On the contrary.
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The original of this post “Expert makes China’s huge problem with Lanz clear: “Will fall by half”” comes from Teleschau.
