10.9 percent in Lower Saxony. Gained almost five percentage points. Sovereign entry into the state parliament of Hanover. The AfD is one of the few winners of the election in the north. How could that happen?
Wolfgang Schroeder, Professor of Political Science at the University of Kassel, is one of the leading AfD experts in the country. In an interview with FOCUS online, he explains the electoral success of the right, why the AfD is neither a pure Eastern party nor a future people’s party, and what a remedy against their strategy of fear could be.
FOCUS online: The AfD has gained almost 5 percentage points in the Lower Saxony election. Did that surprise you?
Wolfgang Schroeder: That did not surprise me, because the upward trend has been indicated in the last two months in the context of general dissatisfaction with government policies and rising energy prices. The unique selling point of the AfD is that it opposes the value and interest-based raison d’etat of the Federal Republic – by mixing the real mistakes and inadequacies of the government and the fears of the population into an aggressive and antisocial mush. That partially caught on.
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Can you be more specific?
Schroeder: The AfD relies on the narrative that the federal government is abusing its own people by campaigning for a value-oriented foreign policy in favor of Ukraine and burdening its own people with the costs. This offensive, fundamental position builds on existing resentments and fears among the voter groups addressed and, in this sense, can certainly be reconciled with a certain proportion of those who have been left behind and feared.
If you look at the polls, you can see that AfD voters are disproportionately scared and concerned about energy prices, labor market developments and inflation. The relevant values are many times higher among AfD voters than among other voter groups. In this sense, the AfD is also the party of those who are left behind and afraid.
Are there also Lower Saxony-specific reasons for the electoral success?
Schroeder: There are hardly any, because it’s all about the general weather situation at the moment. However, after a number of internal trench warfare and upheavals, which even culminated in the loss of faction status in the state parliament, the Lower Saxony AfD was recently able to stabilize significantly. This is certainly also related to the top candidate Stefan Marzischewski-Drewes, who seems to be more able to give the AfD an appropriate face within the framework of the state culture. As a doctor, he also exudes a certain respectability and positions himself as more central within the framework of AfD populism.
What is the most important takeaway from yesterday’s election?
Schroeder: The most important finding of the Lower Saxony election is that the AfD is not a party exclusively from the East. Your concept of mobilizing fears is a successful model that also works in the West.
How does the AfD manage that despite its top staff?
Schroeder: You could also say: because of these people. In their constituency, they are also perceived as strong voices that stand up to the establishment and articulate anger.
AfD boss Chrupalla already sees his party on the way to becoming a people’s party. Do you share this assessment?
Schroeder: That is by no means the case. The AfD currently serves specific voter segments in the lower and middle income and educational segments; as well as those who cultivate a more national, resentment-laden world view. Satisfied, optimistic life plans are just as rare there as highly qualified, well-earning, church-bound groups and socially integrated people.
It’s more of a party for the low-skilled, the worried, the left behind, and those afraid of falling. Building on these characteristics, the AfD presents itself as a party of the frightened and angry. A people’s party looks different.
The strong man of the AfD is anyway the Thuringian state boss Björn Höcke?
Schroeder: At the party conference in Riesa in June, Höcke made his claim to leadership clear from the second row. He has already had a strong influence on the AfD in terms of political ideas. In a way, he offers his Thuringian model for the federal AfD; knowing full well that this can only be transferred to a limited extent. The skeptical positions of the AfD’s early days – when it was still a primarily Eurosceptic party – were replaced by maximalist positions of fundamental rejection of the political system, which is why the AfD has also become a case for the protection of the constitution.
Höcke is the one who is now able to play a key role in controlling and organizing things at party conferences, but without having the AfD as a whole in his hands. The winner takes it all – does not yet work in the AfD either.
Right-wing and right-wing extremist parties, see Italy or Sweden, are on the rise in Europe in particular. Do we also see the AfD soon in a state or even in the federal government?
Schroeder: I don’t see that at the moment. However, this international development shows that we already have something like a process of normalizing strongly right-wing tendencies in political responsibility. The AfD also benefits from this, as the thresholds of deterrence are getting smaller and smaller. This strengthens the courtesy of this policy.
Is there an antidote?
Schroeder: Good politics and strong personalities who also show respect to those who have been left behind. So it’s about more participation and transparency. Above all, it is important not to give up on those who feel left behind and helpless, who cannot cope with the current system and the situation, or even explicitly oppose it. If this claim of wanting to make a policy for everyone is abandoned, then it will become more difficult.
The important thing now is to give these groups the feeling that they can re-enter the system at any time. And at the same time, and this is probably central, everything must be done to ensure that the disintegrating positions of the right shape the substantive and emotional basic melody of social debates.
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