The Russian army is currently fighting on many fronts in Ukraine. For President Vladimir Putin, however, a multi-front battle is also opening up at home. Disputes rage between military bloggers, veterans and the “Siloviki”, Putin’s military elite. He’s in a dilemma.
Vladimir Putin faces a dangerous dilemma. Because the Russian president has to keep three interest groups happy in the midst of growing displeasure with the course of the war in Ukraine. And right now he’s not doing that at all.
Like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), there are currently three actors among Russian nationalists:
Putin needs the support of all three groups. The military bloggers do the propaganda. The veterans campaign for new recruits. And the “Siloviki” provide firepower for the battlefield.
That is why Putin is trying to ensnare all groups. He invites the bloggers to Russia-wide TV programs. It allows the “Siloviki” to raise their own troops and continue their offensives in the Donetsk region. And the veterans are allowed to play an important role in the mobilization.
Only: None of this helps if things are going badly on the battlefield and the groups are at odds. After the recent defeats in the city of Lyman, criticism from the “Siloviki” rained down. Up front: Chechen braggart Ramzan Kadyrov and financier of the notorious mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
They attacked the commander of the Central Military District, Alexander Lapin. And at the same time turned against Sergei Shoigu, a close friend of Putin. The Secretary of Defense is accused of pursuing an all too archaic style of warfare. And the “uniformed military” – ie the veterans – were also verbally attacked.
The “Siloviki” are considered an important voice from the battlefield. The failures of mobilization and the defeat at Lyman made that voice very loud. The military bloggers, in turn, sided with Lapin. So now it’s all against all in Putin’s empire.
This puts those in power in a dangerous dilemma. Because he cannot alienate Kadyrov and Prigozhin. He needs the well-trained and equipped units of the two powerhouses on the battlefield. But he can’t scare off the Department of Defense either. After all, his troops make up the vast majority in the war in Ukraine, and the ministry provides domestic support for Putin’s war.
What can Putin do? According to “ISW”, there has not been a penalty for the verbal attack by Kadyrov and Prigozhin. Instead, Putin has tried to pin the blame for the Lyman disaster on the commander of the Western Military District. That commander, Alexander Zhuravlev, was summarily replaced.
The heavily criticized Alexander Lapin, on the other hand, was allowed to be portrayed as a hero by military bloggers on Russian television. As the man who rescued the fleeing units from Lyman.
However, Putin has not yet pacified the situation. Because the Zoff goes much further. The defeat in Lyman and criticism from Kadyrov and Prigozhin triggered several points of contention among military bloggers. First, war correspondents are now significantly more skeptical about the “siloviki”. And among themselves, the bloggers are no longer green.
They doubt each other’s suitability as advisors to the Russian army. One group accuses the other of criticizing the commanders too much without much background knowledge, instead of concentrating on the mere description of what they saw. It is precisely this group, however, who claims that they are the only ones who have pointed out the real problems in the war to Putin, so that he can finally act.
The veterans, on the other hand, are not at odds with each other. Their anger is aimed squarely at Putin. For months, organizations had been calling for partial mobilization to be announced and administration to be overhauled so that mobilization could be well executed.
Now Putin has announced the mobilization. Far too late, say the veterans. And way too messy. Because the President didn’t listen to them, the mobilization turned out to be exactly the previously announced disaster. The result: a high-ranking former army commander sided with the “Siloviki”. Kraftmeier’s criticism of Alexander Lapin was justified. Kadyrov and Prigozhin were right.
The veterans add fuel to the fire. That doesn’t help Putin to recapture the conflict either.
The fact is, according to the analysis of the “Institute for the Study of War”: “The fragmentation of the Russian nationalists could have strong domestic political effects – maybe even weaken the stability of Putin’s regime.” Putin could not possibly do justice to the interests of all groups equally.
The “Siloviki” want more modern warfare. The veterans want the exact opposite – a return to Russia’s previously successful warfare. And the military bloggers defend the current pace. And at the same time cheerfully report on the mistakes on the battlefield.
The dilemma becomes clear: Putin must not lose any of the groups. And he cannot fully satisfy any of them. The ISW concludes: “Now the deepening cracks are becoming apparent to all Russians. Perhaps this gives the impression that Putin no longer has his base under control. However, the impact of such a development on his regime is difficult to predict.”
