With his speech on the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, Vladimir Putin did not intimidate the Ukrainians but encouraged them, says military expert Mick Ryan. A return to the negotiating table seemed almost impossible and the war would last longer.
During a celebratory speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally declared four Ukrainian territories as Russian territory. The annexation came just nine days after he announced the partial mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists. For ex-general Mick Ryan, they are part of Putin’s new strategy – which, however, has numerous flaws. “Putin has cornered himself,” the military expert said of his speech. This would mark a more dangerous phase of the war. Because the Kremlin boss was desperate. In view of the resentment in the Russian population, Putin knows that he must win this war.
But neither the mobilization nor Putin’s much-celebrated annexation indicate that, Ryan predicts. Instead, a Ukrainian victory is still likely. But Putin’s recent announcements would prolong the war and mean that it would come at a higher price for both sides. On Twitter, the ex-Australian general explains why.
First, Ryan writes, Putin’s 40-minute speech on Friday was further evidence of his “incompetence.” There has been a constant problem with Putin’s warfare since the beginning of the war: “The Russian military is not able to achieve what Putin has asked it to do.” That would further damage Putin’s credibility. Shortly before the ceremony on Friday, even separatist leader Denis Puschilin admitted that the Russian troops in the strategically important city of Lyman were almost surrounded. The Institute for the Study of War also predicts that the Ukrainians will surround or take the city within the next three days. Once again, the Ukrainians are humiliating the Russians and Putin, Ryan said.
More than four months ago, in his May 9 speech, Putin announced that he would “liberate” Donbass. To date, he has not succeeded. On the contrary: Ukraine has already recaptured most of the occupied areas in Donetsk and Zaporizhia, and many areas in Luhansk and Cherson are also back in Ukrainian hands.
From this, Ryan concludes that the illegal annexation of these territories will encourage Ukraine to want to retake the occupied territories with even greater fighting spirit. The offensives would most likely continue, albeit more slowly during the winter months. Ryan is certain: “Putin’s announcement has made Ukrainians regain their resolve”. He expects significantly increased resistance and increased attacks by the Ukrainians on the annexed territory. Neither the destruction of their homeland nor cruel war crimes such as murder, torture and rape have so far deterred the Ukrainians. Nor would they have been intimidated by the annexation, the announcement of the mobilization and the threat of nuclear weapons. “There is little Putin can do to Ukraine that he hasn’t already done,” Ryan said.
The Ukrainians would continue to achieve success with their “corrosion tactics” and “outsmart” the Russians. With this strategy, the Ukrainians continue to attack the Russians where they are weak in order to further stem the dwindling morale of the Russian soldiers. Pictures from the last few days show numerous called-up reservists tearfully saying goodbye to their families and even having to take care of cold protection for the front at their own expense. The morale of the troops is therefore likely to continue to dwindle – exactly the opposite of Putin’s intention.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has already condemned Putin’s illegal annexation as a “land grab”, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg even spoke of the “most serious escalation since the beginning of the war”. Putin gave the West another reason to support Ukraine. On Friday, for example, the USA promised a new billion-euro aid package, after previously announcing the delivery of 18 new Himars rocket launchers and other weapons. Ukraine’s accession to NATO could also be reconsidered. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy officially submitted the application for NATO membership just a few minutes after the end. “Putin’s war and annexation almost guarantee what he tried to prevent by invading Ukraine,” said military expert Ryan.
In his speech, Putin called on Kyiv to negotiate with Russia. His country is ready. However, the areas now incorporated are not being discussed with Ukraine. Ending the war by returning to the negotiating table is not an option in the near future, Ryan said. Putin showed that with his speech on Friday.
