Vladimir Putin sends 300,000 new recruits to war. Military expert Mick Ryan explains in a few steps why many of them won’t even survive the first week. And what that means for the war.
Vladimir Putin sends many Russians to their deaths. “Cannon fodder” will be many new recruits, experts say. Military expert Mick Ryan also sees many problems for the new troops. He writes on Twitter that many newly mobilized people will not even survive the first week at the front. And he explains why that is.
First of all, Russia has to get the necessary men together. Even if there is now a mass exodus from the country; Millions of poorer Russians cannot afford to flee. From them Putin will recruit the necessary mass.
The new recruits are taken to their regional bases. There they are equipped with uniforms and military equipment and their training begins. Ryan identifies the first problem: Russia has great difficulties in equipping its soldiers with modern equipment.
Russia lacks not only equipment. There is also a lack of trainers. Most of them are in combat, hospitalized or dead, Ryan writes.
In addition, the Russian military training suffers from a mistake. The army trains its soldiers in units, not centralized as is done in the West. This is inefficient, according to Ryan. In addition, it is difficult to maintain a high standard of training across all the different training locations.
If recruits get any short training at all, Ryan says it will be bad.
Individual training is one thing. But Ryan says it’s even harder to turn trained recruits into good units. And that takes much longer. Time that Russia does not have and probably will not take.
“Now the Russians will say: ‘So far, so good’.” But now the new troops would have to be transported to the front. That is a challenge. Because the front in Ukraine is 1000 kilometers long. And the Ukrainians have great ability to hit targets far behind the front lines.
“Any place where the Russians are massing their forces will be an excellent target for long-range Ukrainian artillery. For the Himars guns and for the Luftwaffe. The new soldiers thus become easily accessible targets on their way to the front.
Putin needs the new recruits to replenish depleted units at the front. But their inexperience is a danger for themselves and also for the experienced fighters. Ryan writes, “Given the poor leadership in the Russian army, the integration of the new soldiers will likely be haphazard.”
Ryan concludes, “A lot of them probably won’t survive the first week in a new job.”
However, Ryan writes that despite all these problems, the Russians will be able to bring numerous new fighters to the front. This led to three conclusions, according to the military expert.
1. The Ukrainian army still has a small window of opportunity before the mass of new recruits will arrive. During this time, Ukraine must retake as much territory as possible and push back the Russians as far as possible.
2. The mobilization is part of Russia’s strategy to prolong the war in order to wear down Western support for Ukraine.
3. Despite the chaotic, inefficient operation, mobilization will have an effect on the war. They will not form powerful units for a new offensive. But they will fill up the defensive positions that the Ukrainians have yet to overcome. This also prolongs the war. “And that increases the cost of a Ukrainian victory for both sides.”
