The alarming report by a Russian Defense Ministry adviser on Putin’s army’s prospects in the war against Ukraine has caused a stir. But now a German military expert holds against it. “It’s too reminiscent of ghost armies,” said the former high-ranking Bundeswehr general in an interview with FOCUS online.
Too few infantry soldiers, weak tanks, poor weapons for attack and defense, inexperienced units in the use of modern weapons: The analysis of the current state of the Russian troops in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could hardly be more devastating.
The information comes from a Russian expert named Ruslan Pukhov, who is on an advisory board to the Russian Defense Ministry. The 50-year-old defense analyst is director of the “Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies” in Moscow and is considered to be close to Putin. In an interview with Russian state television, Pukhov concludes that the situation for Putin’s troops in Ukraine “could get dramatic at the end of the summer” because of the various problems. With uncertain consequences for the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.
But now a high-ranking former general in the Bundeswehr warns against relying too much on such assessments and giving too much weight to the development of scenarios for possible courses of war. “With such information, there is often rubbish and caution is required because too often it is not a matter of interpreting first-hand information, but only second-hand. This falsifies the picture that emerges in the conclusions,” said the former officer, who wished to remain anonymous. Incidentally, this also applies to situation assessments by the British secret service MI6, which draws up new scenarios almost every week, of which little is often left in the end.
In principle, he could understand one or the other description of the condition of parts of the Russian army from Pukhow. “But the debate is far too reminiscent of the ‘ghost armies’ that were invented during the Second World War,” said the experienced military strategist. “Ghost armies” are intended to simulate invented strengths or weaknesses in order to make wrong strategic or tactical decisions that can then be exploited in a targeted manner. After the Normandy landings in 1944, the Allies used inflatable rubber tanks, jeeps and fake command posts to fool Hitler’s Wehrmacht into the false image of a tank division that created a new front where none actually existed.
From the point of view of the ex-General of the Bundeswehr, who also once held a high-ranking post at NATO level and is well acquainted with how the Russian military works, by far the greatest danger for Putin’s troops does not come from their own weaknesses, but from the Strength of Ukrainian Defense. “Zelenkyj’s troops are currently taking the greatest advantage of the high-precision American air reconnaissance, which in combination with modern Western weapon systems are more effective than the Ukrainian army’s own services.”
From his point of view, however, something else was decisive for the further course of the war. “Ultimately, the operational management of the respective army will decide whether we’re good or bad. It’s about which army is better at conducting combat with combined weapon systems.”
This means the interaction of different weapon systems. The German “Leopard 2 A7” is considered to be one of the most modern main battle tanks currently available in the world. But such a device loses much of its effectiveness if the interaction with air reconnaissance and air attacks preparing for ground combat, artillery and ground troops is not coordinated and well-rehearsed. And unfortunately that is not the case in the Ukrainian army, adds the ex-general.
The Ukrainian side, on the other hand, has neither the necessary experience in operating such highly complex weapon systems, nor the weapons themselves. Because the danger that they fall into the hands of Putin’s troops and thus offer insight into military production secrets is far too high.”
It is true that Putin’s troops are not yet using the latest generation of modern battle tanks in their attack on Ukraine. But in contrast to the Ukraine, such a deployment with well-established personnel on the Russian side is conceivable.
The former military man does not believe that the negative attitude in the West will change anytime soon. Because the average period of time within which Western weapon systems would currently be destroyed or fell into the hands of Russian troops is currently only between 7 and 10 days, said the expert, citing information from military circles FOCUS Online.
