The FBI has searched Donald Trump’s Florida home. In fact, the action could encourage him to run again for the presidency. Why is that and what exactly Trump is playing into the cards now.
There are many indications that Donald Trump will run for the US presidency again in 2024. The FBI search of his home in Florida on Monday doesn’t stand in the way of the whole thing. On the contrary: you could even encourage the ex-president.
“If he hasn’t run before, he will now,” an insider told NBC News. “It makes him angry that they can do this to him. One way to stop this would be to be able to control the government again.”
According to the news portal, the FBI raid fits a narrative that Trump has been spreading since his presidential candidacy in 2015: he sells himself as an outsider whose populist appeal threatens the political establishment.
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According to media reports, Trump’s house in Mar-a-Lago was searched in connection with his time in the White House. According to an article in the New York Times, the ex-US President is said to have taken confidential documents with him to Mar-a-Lago.
He is also accused of flushing documents down the toilet. Photos should confirm that. Interestingly, Trump was the first to publicly announce that his home was being searched.
“My beautiful home, Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. is currently under siege, search and occupation by a large group of FBI agents,” he wrote Monday night (local time) on Truth Social, a network he co-founded. .
Experts believe that the events in Mar-a-Lago could encourage the Republican to announce his candidacy for US President soon. Thomas Jäger, Professor of International Politics and Foreign Policy at the University of Cologne, considers the time after the midterm elections to be ideal for making such an announcement.
“It looks like the Republicans are going to win back at least one chamber in the House of Representatives. Then Trump could jump on the wave of success,” he says in an interview with FOCUS online.
As an active candidate, the ex-president could claim that the investigations against him were an attempt to harm him politically. Trump has already spoken of being a victim of “Third World tactics”. These would aim to undermine his potential candidacy.
According to Jäger, it is not possible to say exactly whether the raid played into the hands of the ex-president. “It could be that Trump manages to build a protective wall by announcing his candidacy early. Then he would present the search as a politically motivated action,” explains the US expert.
Jäger believes it is possible that the former president will trigger a major mobilization effect among his supporters. The midterm elections in particular are about convincing as many people as possible. And the question: “Who has the excitement topic?”.
“For the Democrats, the abortion issue could play a big role. Trump may now think the FBI crackdown could be an issue, which will benefit him.” Trump’s supporters are already presenting the search – like the Republican himself – as an alleged “witch hunt” against the ex-president.
But according to NBC News, there are also legal reasons for a presidential candidacy. Because in the event of a victory, Trump would be spared criminal prosecution, writes the portal.
In addition, as president, Trump could hire and fire officials from the FBI and Department of Justice. He would therefore have a certain influence on who is investigated and who is charged.
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But all of this assumes that “nothing really serious is found” during the FBI search in Mar-a-Lago, says Jäger. If charges are brought against Trump, it would be a fiasco for the ex-president.
“That would weigh heavily on Trump’s candidacy. He would then also encounter dissenting voices among Republicans,” said the US expert. And there is also the question of whether Trump would be banned from public office – and thus also from the presidency – if he violated US law by taking files and documents from the White House.
According to the New York Times, US federal law states that taking, damaging, forging or destroying government documents is a crime.
If convicted, there is a risk of a fine or imprisonment of up to three years. In addition, the person concerned would be disqualified from any public office in the United States.
In the end, Jäger looks at the events that took place in Mar-a-Lago with mixed feelings. “One thing can already be said: Whoever ordered the search must have had a clear suspicion that something would be found. Otherwise you wouldn’t go that far,” he says.
