Scientists around the world have been debating the origin of the coronavirus for more than two years. On the one hand there is the laboratory theory – on the other hand the thesis that the pathogen comes from an animal market. New data now support the latter.
Did it come from the lab? Did it come from the animal market? Was it a bat – or was it a pangolin? Since the beginning of the pandemic, myths and theories have surrounded the origin of the coronavirus. And new data keep appearing, which could bring us a little closer to the truth.
For example, two new studies now support the assumption that the corona virus comes from an animal market in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan – and not from a Chinese laboratory. One of the two papers, published by the science magazine Science, evaluated available temporal and spatial data on the first known corona cases in Wuhan.
The researchers found that the earliest cases of Covid-19 in Huanan Market were concentrated among vendors selling live animals or among people shopping there. All eight Corona cases in Wuhan reported before December 20, 2019 could be traced back to the western part of the market, which offers live and freshly slaughtered animals.
The research team led by the renowned evolutionary biologist Michael Worobey also looked at the locations of 155 of the first corona infections in Wuhan. Accordingly, they were grouped closely around the Huanan market, while later infections were widely distributed in the metropolis.
“Our analysis of the available evidence clearly suggests that the pandemic stemmed from initial human infections from animals for sale at Huanan Market in late November 2019,” said Kristian Andersen, a microbiologist at California’s Scripps Institute, who also said was involved in the study. However, the researchers did not determine from which animal species the virus jumped to humans.
In the second study, also published in Science, researchers examined the genetic data of early corona cases. Again, the scientists came to the conclusion that the virus probably jumped from animals in the Huanan market to humans.
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Study author Worobey signed an open letter last year calling for the theory of a laboratory accident at the Institute of Virology in Wuhan to be further examined. The knowledge gained since then would have made him rethink, the virologist said. The virus “originated in this market and spread from there”.
But the laboratory thesis is not off the table. Co-author Andersen said the lab leak theory has not been disproved. However, it is important to understand “that there are possible and probable scenarios. And that possible is not the same as probable”.
The coronavirus first appeared in Wuhan in China in 2019. Research is being carried out on corona viruses there – which is why the thesis is always being raised as to whether the virus did not simply escape there. Initially, this theory found favor in circles of conspiracy theorists. And China has so far vehemently denied such allegations. But there are always new indications and speculations that strengthen the suspicion of a laboratory accident.
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In order to finally create clarity, the World Health Organization (WHO) set up an independent expert council (SAGO) last year. This should examine the various theories – and recommended in June in a report to examine the laboratory thesis. Top virologist Christian Drosten is also part of this body.
He spoke out vehemently against the laboratory theory for a long time. Nevertheless, later in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, he was at least “surprised” by certain practices in which field mouse viruses were modified in the laboratory using genetic engineering. “Things were done in Wuhan that could be described as dangerous,” he said – but at the same time emphasized: “But the Sars-CoV-2 virus could not have come out of it.”
And top virologist Alexander Kekulé wrote a year ago in an article on FOCUS Online: “The accidental release from a laboratory [is] one of the possibilities that definitely have to be considered.”
The fact that the fairly obvious possibility of a so-called lab leak was taboo for a long time had “political and – unfortunately also – scientific reasons”. Because, “if the pandemic had instead been caused by a laboratory accident, and also by researchers from the same field, it would be a disaster for the whole scene.”
However, the WHO expert council wants to create clarity and calls for the “assessment of potential scenarios in which a failure of the biosafety procedures has led to a possible laboratory-related infection with the pathogen investigated,” says the report.
However, the new recommendation says nothing about how likely the laboratory thesis is, stressed WHO Council President Marietjie Venter in June. Studies are also needed to refute them. The most likely thesis is that the virus jumped from an animal to humans via an intermediate host. And that’s exactly what the new “Science” studies are pointing to.
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