How will autumn be in terms of Corona? While some experts already assume that the pandemic is over, others still see danger. The vaccine researcher Leif Erik Sander from the Charité in Berlin also considers the situation to be completely unpredictable.
According to current figures from the Robert Koch Institute, over 1.4 million people in Germany are currently suffering from a corona infection – the number of unreported cases is likely to be significantly higher. Experts, above all Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, therefore fear that autumn could be particularly bad – if an autumn wave is added to the summer wave. If a new variant were then added, chaos would be inevitable.
The vaccine researcher Leif Erik Sander from the Charité in Berlin, who also belongs to the group of experts of the federal government, does not want to give the all-clear yet. He does not want to answer whether we are well prepared with the new corona measures roadmap, which will become part of the new infection protection law and will apply from October: “It is difficult to make a forecast,” he told the “RND”.
“We could well come to a situation where effective infection control measures could become necessary. In the course of the pandemic, unexpected situations have arisen again and again,” he said. In the worst case, it could well be that we find ourselves again in a situation in which our critical infrastructure would be heavily burdened and there would be a high level of sick leave and a shortage of staff.
“Well, I don’t think it’s possible to give the all-clear yet. Anyone who does that closes their eyes to what could happen,” he emphasizes to “RND”. Prevention, therapy and good data collection remained important.
Only recently, in a position paper, a group of experts led by physicians Thomas Voshaar and Matthias Schrappe and medical statistician Gerd Antes called for the end of government measures. “From an epidemiological and medical perspective, the virus is no longer a threat to the health system and the population, based on the current state of affairs,” it says. Because Covid, as a serious and life-threatening disease, is practically no longer seen in hospitals.
That is why Voshaar and his colleagues are convinced that no further measures are required for the autumn. Constant testing or even a mask requirement are no longer necessary – no quarantine either. Only risk groups would have to continue to be protected.
In addition to the corona measures, such as the obligation to wear masks and tests in medical facilities, the government wants to push the vaccination campaign again in the fall. The focus is primarily on the fourth vaccination. Leif Erik Sander also considers the second booster to be a good thing for certain groups: “Elderly people and vulnerable groups benefit in particular from the second booster. These people generally have a higher risk of becoming seriously ill with Covid-19 and dying,” he explains at “RND”.
According to Sander, studies from Israel showed that people over the age of 60 would generally benefit from the fourth vaccination – the Standing Vaccination Commission, on the other hand, only recommends it from the age of 70. “The age at which there is a concrete benefit can be discussed,” Sander, who researches vaccines himself, points out. However, it has already been shown in new research that the probability of infection is reduced by the fourth vaccination – even if only for a short time.
Even if the vaccination would have a positive and protective effect for everyone, Sander still agrees with Stiko’s recommendation regarding the second booster. “A fourth vaccination is currently advisable for everyone over 70, residents and employees in care facilities, and people with immunodeficiency.”
Nevertheless, younger people could also be vaccinated “without any problems” if they wished. Even if younger people generally have a lower risk of a severe course, Sander does not advise against a second booster. “With three vaccinations, most people are excellently protected against serious illness,” Sander continued at “RND”. Nevertheless, it is not the case that they have no benefit at all from the fourth vaccination: but this is greater with age.
However, the immunologist does not think it makes sense to wait for the adapted vaccines, which Lauterbach says should be available in autumn: “I would definitely not recommend it to older people. It would be better for you to get vaccinated now, because the infection pressure in the population is still high.”
It would still happen that people became seriously ill with Covid-19. He also does not rule out the possibility that further booster vaccinations may be needed. I don’t see that coming for younger people. However, this could be the case for certain risk groups.
Because if Lauterbach had his way, it would be best for all adults to get boosters for the second time. From an immunological point of view, healthy adults under 60 can wait for the Omikron vaccine in the fall. Experts agree on that.
“If you have any previous illnesses or are very overweight, then it makes sense to get the fourth booster now,” recommends Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology, in an interview with the “Augsburger Allgemeine”. “Then you should wait at least three months and then you can have the vaccine adapted to Omikron,” advises Watzl.
Nevertheless, one should not forget the infections that have gone through, which act like immune boosters. “Assuming you’ve been vaccinated three times and got infected with omicron in the summer, you can count the infection like a vaccination,” explains Sander.
The high infection rate also has a positive epidemiological effect: The immunologist Carsten Watzl now assumes that there is a very high level of basic immunity in the population. “Not only because of the vaccinations, but also because of the many omicron infections that have occurred, the immunity in the adult population has now increased significantly,” he told the “Augsburger Allgemeine”. “One can assume that it is already at 95 percent and that the starting position will be better this autumn.”
Nevertheless, one cannot do without further vaccinations and hygiene measures: “It is always about avoiding too many illnesses that cause problems in important areas, and also reducing the risk of vulnerable groups becoming infected,” Watzl continued. The immunologist therefore emphasized that politicians must also prepare a certain catalog of measures that can be brought out in winter.
