The Federal Network Agency considers it possible, under certain conditions, that a gas emergency can be avoided in the coming winter. This emerges from the agency’s latest catalog of scenarios, which was published on Monday.
In several model calculations, the Federal Network Agency showed on Monday that a gas shortage could be prevented. In its catalog of scenarios, it emphasizes that an emergency can only be avoided through significant savings, storage and additional deliveries. According to the Federal Network Agency, even assuming that no more Russian natural gas flows to Germany, a shortage in the coming winter is still avoidable. However, the transit volumes would have to be further reduced if there were no increase in imports. All scenarios refer to the period from July 2022 to June 2023.
Variant 1: Nord Stream 1 no longer delivers and LNG terminals will run from January 2023 (utilization of 90 percent)
Variant 2: Nord Stream 1 will deliver from July 27th. 20 percent and LNG terminals running from January 2023 (utilization of 90 percent)
Variant 3: Nord Stream 1 delivers 40 percent and LNG terminals run from January 2023 (utilization of 90 percent)
If the German gas storage facilities are also to be 40 percent full by February 1st and the supply is to be secured for next winter, the model also means that the import capacities for liquefied natural gas, for example, must be increased. According to the federal government, the first LNG terminals should go into operation as early as next winter.
In all zero percent scenarios, however, there will be supply problems next winter 23/24 without additional countermeasures such as higher consumption reductions.
In the event of a so-called gas shortage, demand exceeds supply. After proclaiming the highest level of danger in the gas emergency plan, according to the existing rules, the Federal Network Agency would then allocate the natural gas still available according to need.
