Our food supply is too dependent on imports. Nevertheless, we should not give up free trade.
The Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 shook many people in Germany and Europe awake. Setting the course necessary to respond to this challenge does not only take place in defense and energy policy, but also in food policy. Commonly referred to as the “granary of Europe”, Ukraine is a major exporter of food and agricultural commodities to global markets. Around a third of global wheat exports come from Russia and Ukraine. Parts of the transport and agricultural infrastructure were destroyed by the war.
André Algermissen is a consultant for agriculture at the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation.
At the same time, important Black Sea ports are being blocked by the Russian Navy, disrupting existential supply chains. It is estimated that around 20 to 25 million tons of grain are affected by this blockade. The effects of the war on global food security are fatal: the World Food Organization estimates that the number of starving people worldwide could rise to between eight and 13 million. The world community breathed all the more sighs of relief a few days ago: Russia and Ukraine, mediated by the United Nations and Turkey, agreed on a grain agreement.
This provides for a ceasefire for the ship transports that will take place via Istanbul. There, the cargo is examined to ensure that there are no weapons on board – as happened with the first freighter “Razoni”. The agreement is initially valid for 120 days. What is certain, however, is that Vladimir Putin is likely to continue to use the grain deliveries as an instrument of his warfare. Important insights can be derived from this approach for the European Union:
The Ukraine war made us unmistakably aware of the import dependency of many states. For example, Lebanon imports around 80 percent of its food, while Egypt gets as much as 80 percent of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine. The consequences for the global security architecture are fatal: the food shortages can exacerbate conflicts in these already fragile states and trigger a chain reaction, the effects of which will also be felt in Europe – for example in the form of new migration movements.
These developments should be a lesson for the European Union: In the future, for example, through the Common European Agricultural Policy, our own agriculture must be financially strengthened in order to continue to guarantee a high degree of self-sufficiency in food and to reduce import dependency as far as possible. However, this does not mean a relapse into protectionism and isolation. The European Union should continue to support free trade and use the potential of the world market. Rather, it is about understanding food policy as a security policy that, as a strategic tool, can pose a threat to Europe.
At the same time, it is important to support developing and emerging countries that are particularly dependent on grain deliveries from Russia and Ukraine. The increased energy costs and fertilizer prices must also not be neglected in this context. In the short term, the provision of additional financial resources can help. In the long term, however, it is crucial that the European Union supports its partners in building sustainable and resilient agricultural systems. Germany is already making a decisive contribution with the special initiative “ONE WORLD – No Hunger” by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, for example by supporting smallholders.
Our diet also has to change fundamentally: Currently, around 42 percent of the calories consumed worldwide come from the three plant species wheat, rice and corn. As a result, we have brought ourselves into an unnecessary dependency. Although sufficient cultivated plant species are available, they are not used sufficiently. A long-term food policy therefore relies on extensive diversification in order to create more resilient food systems and eliminate one-sided dependencies. Positive side effect: The diversification strengthens the adaptation to climatic changes and at the same time promotes biological diversity.
