The Ukraine war is at a crucial turning point. Australian ex-general Mick Ryan points out that Ukraine now has a great opportunity to “take the initiative”. This is an important strategy in military operations and could put Putin in a “catastrophic” position.
Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russia has been the “leader”. Putin’s armed forces have determined where and how fighting will take place. After being elected, the Russian army advanced militarily and Ukraine went on the defensive. But military expert Mick Ryan thinks that could soon change. He expects a “change of initiative” between the two sides.
According to the Australian ex-general, “taking the initiative” is extremely important in military operations. The aim is to disrupt the decision-making process of the opposing military leadership. You have to set “surprises” yourself and put your opponent on the defensive, he writes on Twitter. Russia has always done this since the troops attacked Ukraine on February 24. First in Kyiv, Kharkiv and in the south, then also in the east of Ukraine.
But now there are increasing signs that this dynamic could be reversed. Although Putin’s forces recently took over the Luhansk region, they used so many troops and modern weaponry that they hardly justified the small gains in territory, military expert Ryan writes in his latest thread. Exhaustion added to the death toll and broken weapons, Ryan said. Western support for Ukraine, especially Himar’s multiple rocket launchers, is also troubling the Russians: “In the east, the Ukrainians made the Russians bleed for every meter of ground they gained,” Ryan said.
Especially in the south, the Russian army is currently in a shaky position due to Ukrainian pinpricks. If Zelenskyy can now strengthen his armed forces with more precision weapons, armored personnel carriers and offensive-tactical logistics, Ukraine is now in a position to take the initiative, says Ryan. That could significantly change the future course of the war.
It would be a huge advantage if Ukraine now took the initiative, said the ex-general. Zelenskyy’s forces could attack where and how they want – disastrous for Russia’s morale. The Russian military could collapse under the pressure. That would also have an impact on the rest of Europe, says Ryan. “The demonstration of Ukraine’s success on the battlefield will give European citizens the boost they need to understand that their small sacrifices in the form of higher energy costs matter to a nation defending its very existence,” Ryan said.
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The progress made by the Ukrainian military is clear: according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine has liberated at least 1,060 of the 3,649 Russian-occupied towns. By August 3, 60 towns and villages in the Kherson region along the 230 km front had been recaptured, Ukrainian authorities report. 50 fuel and ammunition depots and two of three blatantly important Russian supply bridges had been destroyed.
In fact, the Russian army has already partially switched from action to reaction. 25,000 soldiers were transferred to Kherson from the Donbass, where Putin’s forces are actually advancing. A severe weakening of the offensive, report military experts from the US Institute for the Study of the War (ISW). Whoever loses on the offensive goes on the defensive and thereby loses the initiative.
Ryan does not want to commit himself completely in his thread, but also emphasizes that if Ukraine can turn the tide and take the initiative in the war, its success stories would be spread around the world. Large numbers of Russian troops retreating, captured forces of Putin would be seen. It would be a “disaster” for the Kremlin boss. “His narratives of the greatness of Russia and the effectiveness of its silver bullets will be in shambles,” Ryan said. Reversing this tactical, military and moral loss would then hardly be possible.
