Nord Stream 1 will start up again on Thursday, but will only supply around a fifth of the normal gas volume to Germany for the time being. Russia has been blaming a broken turbine for weeks. In fact, it is not clear how well the remaining parts of the Portovaya compressor station are in good condition. In this way, Russia could justify any increase or reduction in gas supplies for a long time to come.
As early as mid-June, Russia reduced the gas throughput on the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1. Instead of around 150 million cubic meters, only around 100 million cubic meters arrived in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. After the regular ten-day maintenance, it should even be only 30 million cubic meters from Thursday. Russia justifies this with a broken gas turbine that has to be repaired abroad and is no longer being returned because of the sanctions. In addition, more gas turbines would have to be taken off the grid in a few weeks for maintenance.
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Nord Stream 1 starts in Russia near the city of Vyborg. This is where the Portovaya compressor station is located, in which six turbines provide the necessary pressure in the pipeline to force the maximum capacity of 150 million cubic meters of gas through the tube per day. The ten-day maintenance mainly affected this compressor station. The turbines there have been in use for around ten years and now need to be checked accordingly.
Even before the maintenance break scheduled for July 11, Portovaya was not working at full capacity. According to media reports, only two of the six turbines were connected. One of the turbines had already been sent to Canada for repairs some time ago. The German manufacturer Siemens Energy, which produces all six turbines in Portovaya, has a plant there. Three other shut down turbines will also have to be sent abroad for repairs in the coming weeks and months, Russia has announced. The condition of the two turbines in operation is unclear.
It is not unusual for turbines in a compressor station to require maintenance and repairs. Normally, however, this should be possible without noticeably reducing the flow through the pipeline. After all, in normal times both Russia and Germany have an interest in normal operations being maintained even if individual machines fail.
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But the current situation is not normal. The gas turbine sent to Canada for repairs was stuck there for over a month. Because of Western sanctions against Russia, Siemens Energy was not allowed to ship them back to Russia. Only last week did the Canadian government grudgingly grant an exemption.
But they will also be necessary for the other three turbines. Otherwise, Siemens Energy is not allowed to repair them abroad and send them back to Russia, or deliver spare parts directly to Gazprom so that they can repair the turbines themselves.
Russia cites the problems with the turbines as the reason for having to reduce the capacity of Nord Stream 1. With only two functioning turbines, it is not possible to build up as much pressure as with six. That sounds logical at first. In addition, Russia blames Western sanctions for the fact that the turbines are not repaired more quickly. There is something to it, too, as the fuss about the return delivery of the turbine from Canada shows.
But: The technical problems in Portovaya come at a very good time for Russia. It allows the country to single out the West and its sanctions as the problem. In addition, Russia can wash its hands in innocence. In this narrative, cut gas supplies are not a political decision by the Kremlin, but a consequence of Western intervention in the Ukraine war.
The problem with this is that it is not possible to check from the outside what condition the Portovaya compressor station actually is in. Maybe not four of the six turbines are broken, maybe two turbines could send more gas through the pipeline than Russia says. In addition, the federal government, like the Federal Network Agency, had warned several times before the maintenance that Russia could use a technical problem as the reason for lower delivery volumes.
The turbine returned from Canada is expected to arrive in Portovaya on July 24. The federal government wants to wait until Monday to see how much gas will actually flow through Nord Stream 1. It is still unclear whether and when the other three allegedly broken turbines will be sent abroad for repairs. Likewise, there are no confirmations as to the condition of the two operational turbines.
This gives Russia many opportunities. In the coming weeks and months, Gazprom and the Kremlin can justify any increase or further reduction in delivery volumes with problems in Portovaya. It is likely that this will be used in such a way that gas prices remain high or increase further towards the winter. Russia’s hope is that countries dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany, will sooner or later have to stop supporting Ukraine.
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