The whole world is watching Putin’s war in Ukraine. Israel and many Arab states have been warning of a nuclear-armed Iran and Tehran’s aggressive intentions for years. But Germany is making the same mistakes again.
They had warned us for years. As Russia’s direct neighbors, the Central and Eastern European states pointed to Putin’s thirst for conquest. But their fears fell on deaf ears in many Western capitals. There was talk of exaggerated worries and war rumors. The policy of compromise with Russia was never complemented with a credible strategy of deterrence and active containment. One simply hoped that plan A would work, also because there was no plan B. The hangover is big today. Shouldn’t one have listened more closely and not just referred to Russia’s security needs like a mantra?
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The same questions now arise with regard to Iran, a former imperial empire which, like Russia, has never enjoyed true democracy. For years, Israel and many Arab states have been warning of a nuclear-armed Iran and Tehran’s aggressive intentions. The regime sponsors terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, fights with the Revolutionary Guards in Syria in support of Syrian dictator Assad, helps destabilize Iraq and finances the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Anyone who criticizes the long appeasement towards Russia despite the wars in Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Syria should pay attention to Iran’s expansionist attitude.
Bloody abstention: Germany’s role in the Syrian war
However, the greatest danger does not come from conventional means. After the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) under President Trump in 2018, Iran made great strides towards the bomb. JCPOA restrictions are ignored. Launchers have recently been tested. The break-out time, i.e. the period of time to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, was several months years ago, but now it is just a few weeks. The Russian role in the JCPOA format has not become more constructive either. What follows?
Israel is engaged in an increasingly open exchange of blows with Tehran, ranging from direct military action in Syria to targeted killings and mutual cyberattacks. In Western Europe, and especially in Germany, there is usually only lukewarm advice, one should not exaggerate, one must build bridges to civil society and talk to each other. Warnings about the aggressive and expansive character of the Ayatollah regime are all too readily dismissed with references to the mistakes of the Iraq war in 2003 and with criticism of Israel and the United States.
During his first visit to Israel, Chancellor Scholz said: “We are aware of the Israeli security concerns and take them seriously.” Meanwhile, Federal President Steinmeier congratulated the anti-democratic regime in Tehran on its birthday. Similar to Russia for a long time, Iran is now painted in rosy colors and it is more critical of its own allies than is appropriate.
Of course, negotiation remains the best way. Therefore, the new efforts, which EU authorities have described as having failed for the time being, are correct. At the same time, the Europeans must not become stray mediators between the worlds and squint at economic opportunities in Iran. The US has stated in very clear language in the “Jerusalem Declaration” that it will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon and is ready to devote all national resources to this goal. The EU should endorse this statement. The alternative would be to continue to hide behind empty phrases, practice “legitimate criticism of Israel” from high horse and look for a new “24. February” to ask again in complete consternation why all the warning signs were ignored.
Due to the intransigent Iranian attitude, the military option must always be on the table as a last resort and, if necessary, on the negotiating table. No one wants to start a war for no reason. The Iranian regime has it in its own hands to respond to the offers of talks and to contribute to stability in the Middle East – not to mention democratic reforms for the Iranian civilian population, who are suffering most from their regime.
In Saudi Arabia, Biden has to make realpolitik with an unpleasant ally – like the Federal Republic in Qatar. A Middle East NATO will remain an illusion. But the Abraham Agreement concluded in 2020, the greatest foreign policy achievement of the otherwise performance-shy Trump, shows a sensible strategy: a power bloc to deter and contain Iran (and its allies, including Russia) through peace treaties and economic cooperation between the Arab states and Israel erect
Historically, such Western-backed regional alliances are not new. The Central Pact Organization (CENT or Baghdad Pact) was intended to push back Soviet influence in the region in the early Cold War. A similar defensive alliance today can help secure stability and Western interests vis-à-vis Tehran, Moscow and Beijing.
A nuclear-capable Iran and subsequent possible nuclear proliferation among Arab states would be the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 21st century for the Middle East. The potential consequences would be more far-reaching than civil wars, refugee movements, the withdrawal from Afghanistan or the Iraq war. How little influence one has on the actions of nuclear powers can be seen in Putin’s vabanque policy.
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine should therefore be a wake-up call for the West not to ignore warnings from allies and to take the potential dangers seriously. And just as after September 11, 2001, the fight against terrorism in distant countries was given as the primary goal, we must not only look at NATO’s eastern flank now. The world is not that simple.
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