Germany is in the middle of the corona summer wave with the omicron subvariant BA.5, which now dominates the infection process. But now a new subline is emerging that is worrying researchers: BA.2.75. How dangerous is it for us?
With an incidence of over 700 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, Germany is in the middle of the summer wave. According to the Robert Koch Institute, over 1.6 million people are currently infected. The reason for this is the highly contagious BA.5 variant, which now dominates the infection process in Germany with a share of 77 percent. There is no evidence that BA.5 triggers more severe courses or is associated with higher mortality. But the RKI points out that high infection rates inevitably lead to a higher number of severe and fatal courses.
In the middle of this scenario, a new variant appears that could lead to even higher infection rates: BA.2.75. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), this is a subgroup of the BA.2 variant, which first appeared in India in May and is spreading rapidly there. There are also said to be cases in Canada, New Zealand, Australia and Great Britain. Ulrich Elling from the Institute for Biotechnology put the number outside of India at 70 cases, but the number of unreported cases is presumably much higher, the expert told ZDF.
It is therefore not surprising that cases have already occurred in Germany. The virologist Manuel Krone from the University Hospital Würzburg confirmed this to the “SWR”. How high the proportion is, however, cannot yet be said because of the low typing of the samples and could only be determined with a delay, Krone continued. The variant does not even appear in the current weekly report of the Robert Koch Institute.
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Nevertheless, some scientists have already commented on BA.2.75. What worries most are the changes in the spike protein. “BA.2.75 has eight mutations in addition to the 29 mutations that the BA.2 lineage already has in the spike protein. It can be assumed that such an abundance of new mutations will further strengthen the properties of undermining immune protection,” said Elling, for example, to “ZDF”.
The British virologist Tom Peacock wrote on Twitter that the changes in the mutations do not make you sit up and take notice individually, but that they all appear together is another matter.
This is because the virus can possibly evade the immune system even better than the omicron subline BA.2, which was dominant in our country until around June, already did. This means that it can spread even faster and infect even more people, since vaccination or recovery do not protect against infection.
Above all, the BA.5 variant, which is currently dominant in our country, may offer little protection against infection. Only those who have already had a BA.1 infection are possibly better protected against reinfection, writes the virologist Jesse Bloom from Seattle on Twitter.
Richard Neher from the Biozentrum at the University of Basel was somewhat more reserved. “It’s entirely possible that BA.2.75 will become a globally successful variant, but it’s too early to say for sure. ‘ Due to the strong BA.5 wave, BA.2.75 might not spread as much at all.
“During the pandemic, there were already a few variants and sub-variants that circulated here for a short time, but were not able to assert themselves while they have become dominant elsewhere,” says Neher on “SWR”. For example, the subvariant BA.2.12.1. in the USA for one wave – but in Germany it was replaced by BA.5. Likewise, beta and gamma variants were rampant in Brazil, which didn’t play a role for us.
However, the spread in India is also important for assessing the development: “If BA.2.75 is now spreading so quickly in India, then it is reasonable to assume that BA.2.75 bypasses BA.2 immunity like BA.5 bypasses BA .1-immunity. In that case, rapid dissemination can also be expected internationally,” said Ulrich Elling on ZDF.
Whether and to what extent a variant can spread to us depends, among other things, on the immunity of the population. This can vary depending on the prevailing variants. According to Neher, Germany could already have built up good immunity due to infection and vaccination. Even if this may not be able to prevent an infection, it can still reduce the risk of severe courses and deaths, Neher continued at “SWR”. That is why the scientist also recommends the booster vaccination: it broadens the immune response so that other variants can also be covered.
Elling, on the other hand, takes a more sober view: “Whether BA.2.75 or another variant, after BA.5 there will be another wave. And infection in one wave does not protect against infection in the next wave or the one after that. Infection ‘in reserve’ does not work, at least not as protection against infection,” he told ZDF.
However, experts seem to agree on one thing: It is not yet possible to say whether BA.2.75 triggers more severe courses. “It’s completely impossible at the moment,” Elling emphasized to ZDF.
Concerns that the new variant might not be detected in laboratory tests (PCR) also seem unfounded. There is no indication that BA.2.75 cannot be detected by PCR, said the Swiss virologist Isabella Eckerle on Twitter in response to a corresponding claim. Neher also explained that detection problems seemed unlikely to him with PCR tests, since these tests typically have several target genes.
