The West wanted to bring Vladimir Putin to his knees economically, but suddenly we feel the cool barrel of his gas pistol on our foreheads. On the world energy markets, he can play the role of the energy tsar. powerful. light footed. Efficient.
The debtor cannot threaten his bank. If he dares anyway, she will kick him out. Or torture. She doesn’t need a rack for that. After all, she has her interest.
The energy consumer cannot threaten his supplier. If the customer is annoying, you turn off the tap. The previous customer will then lack hot water, electricity, heating and possibly soon even a job.
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Which brings us to Vladimir Putin. The West wanted to bring him to his knees economically (Joe Biden: “All of our sanctions and export controls are crushing the Russian economy”) and suddenly we feel the cool barrel of his gas pistol on our foreheads.
Putin has realized that he cannot impress the world in the small Ukrainian theater. His war there is costly, morally repugnant and politically ineffective.
His real weapon lies in the almost inexhaustible oil and gas reserves of the largest country on earth. Putin’s big stage is the world energy markets. He has something here that the others don’t have. Here he can play the role of the energy tsar. powerful. light footed. Efficient.
And so we became witnesses (and victims) of the West’s greatest political miscalculation since NATO invaded Afghanistan. Putin was not shrunk, but enlarged. The Ukraine war was not ended, but continues as a world economic war.
We remember that the West was also wrong about the Taliban’s ability to fight and resist. The so-called Stone Age warriors were not technologically or financially superior to NATO. But her energy levels and her ability to suffer were higher. The suicide bomber was their tornado. They didn’t need reconnaissance planes, collaborating with the general public gave them better data.
Vladimir Putin is the modern-day Taliban. Except that its explosive power is not limited geographically. With his policy of allocating oil and gas, but also with his threats and enticements, he moves the energy markets.
Only at the weekend did he use a meeting with government officials, which was broadcast by the television channel Rossiya 24, to send the West a media ransom note: “The sanctions against Russia will ultimately harm the countries that impose them much more.” And further : “New sanctions could lead to even more serious consequences, even catastrophic consequences on the global energy market. I’m not exaggerating.”
The West – if it wants to prevent a second Kabul – should listen to the aggressor. He should understand that Putin has changed the war aim. We continue to look at Kyiv, Mariupol and the Donbass. But it aims at the center of our affluent societies. He no longer wants to just subjugate Ukraine, but to show off our political class, which misjudges its strength. If he continues like this, he will make the situation in the West dance:
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Conclusion: The West must recognize that the weapon of the sanctions regime has reversed its course. We wanted to punish Putin and we are punishing ourselves. We wanted him to tremble, now we’re shivering for next winter. We wanted to dwarf him and that’s how we made him big again. His self-confidence – you could see that over the weekend – is at an all-time high.
There’s an American folk saying that goes, “If you’re in a hole, stop digging.” If you’re in a hole, stop digging. The inconvenient truth is this: the West must change its strategy or it will fall into the hole it dug for Putin itself.
Gabor Steingart is one of the best-known journalists in the country. He publishes the newsletter The Pioneer Briefing. The podcast of the same name is Germany’s leading daily podcast for politics and business. Since May 2020, Steingart has been working with his editorial staff on the ship “The Pioneer One”. Before founding Media Pioneer, Steingart was, among other things, CEO of the Handelsblatt Media Group. You can subscribe to his free newsletter here.
