For months now, Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing almost every day for his country to be admitted to the EU. A first step has now been taken: Ukraine is officially a candidate for EU membership. But what does that mean in concrete terms?
When it came to the question of possible EU membership, Ukraine was repeatedly put off. Russia’s war against the Eastern European country has now unexpectedly accelerated Kiev’s rapprochement with the EU. A historic decision was made at a summit in Brussels: Ukraine is now an EU candidate country.
The status is relevant primarily psychologically and symbolically. The EU is showing the more than 40 million Ukrainians that they have a perspective of becoming EU citizens. It should also be a sign that it is worth fighting for freedom and democracy. “Ukraine is on the front line and defends European values,” said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently.
There is no automatism between candidate status and financial aid. For the accession candidates, however, a total of 14.16 billion euros are planned as so-called pre-accession aid from 2021 to 2027. The money is intended to support reforms, but the disbursement must be approved by the member states. The bottom line is that the financial aid is likely to be just a drop in the bucket anyway. According to initial estimates, the reconstruction of the heavily indebted Ukraine will cost well over a trillion euros.
Nobody can predict that. Turkey, for example, became an EU candidate in 1999 – and has probably never been further from membership than it is today. It is also relevant that every step towards rapprochement must be decided unanimously by the EU states. Theoretically, a candidate for accession can never become a member.
The heads of state and government backed a recommendation from the EU Commission. Accordingly, the country must first meet seven requirements before the start of accession negotiations. Among other things, it is about the selection process for Ukrainian constitutional judges and a stronger fight against corruption – especially at a high level. The EU Commission is also demanding that standards in the fight against money laundering be observed and that a law against the excessive influence of oligarchs be implemented.
That is extremely unlikely. The European Court of Auditors gave the country a devastating report in September. “Although Ukraine receives all kinds of support from the EU, oligarchs and interest groups continue to undermine the rule of law in Ukraine and endanger the country’s development,” it said at the time.
EU projects and EU aid have contributed to revising the Ukrainian constitution and a large number of laws. However, achievements are constantly being jeopardized and there are numerous attempts to circumvent legislation and water down reforms. The whole system of criminal investigation, prosecution and prosecution in high-level corruption cases is anything but stable.
With 27 members, the European Union is already considered sluggish by many. Because decisions in areas such as foreign policy have to be made unanimously, there are always deadlocks. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) therefore warns that the EU must make itself “expandable”. This also includes lifting the principle of unanimity for some decisions. However, it is very unlikely that all states will be willing to give up their veto right.
Probably a double-edged sword. On the one hand, without the war, Ukraine would probably never have gained candidate status so quickly. On the other hand, the war is likely to complicate efforts to meet the conditions for starting accession negotiations. In addition, it is considered impossible for Ukraine to become a member of the EU before the end of the war. Because then Kyiv could demand military assistance from other EU states under Article 42, paragraph 7 of the EU treaty – the EU would officially be a war party.
Besides Turkey, the countries Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have long been candidates for membership. There are also Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo as so-called potential candidates. Shortly after Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova also applied in March. Like Ukraine, Moldova was made an EU candidate at the EU summit. Georgia should first implement reforms before the time comes. The Balkan states’ hopes for progress were dashed at a joint meeting with the EU on Thursday.
By Michel Winde and Ansgar Haase, dpa
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