Karl Lauterbach speaks of the summer wave. Christian Drosten is worried about Portugal’s deaths. The reason: the Omikron variants BA.5 and BA.4 are spreading at breakneck speed. Experts explain how dramatic the new pandemic chapter is and whether a lockdown is imminent in the fall.
“Unfortunately, the announced summer wave has become reality. That also means little relaxation for the next few weeks,” said Karl Lauterbach of the “Rheinische Post”. The previously observed summer effect in the pandemic fizzled out this time. The reason for this is, among other things, that the currently circulating virus variant is very easily transferable. In addition, almost all precautionary measures have expired, the Minister of Health explained to the newspaper.
What is the corona situation in Germany: are BA.5 and BA.4 spoiling the summer for us? Are we facing another lockdown in autumn? FOCUS Online asked experts.
Since we “again have a lot of unprotected contacts, the positive effect of the summer weather is unfortunately not enough to prevent the current very strong wave,” says Ralf Reintjes, epidemiologist at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences. As a consequence, it is to be expected that the health system will also be more heavily burdened again. But at the moment it is certainly not endangered.
Ralf Reintjes is Professor of Epidemiology and Health Reporting at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences. His focus is on the investigation of infectious diseases, expertise in surveillance and pandemic preparedness at national and international level (especially Europe, Asia and Africa).
Timo Ulrichs, infection epidemiologist from the Akkon University of Applied Sciences in Berlin, does not see the growing wave as too dramatic. “The clinical courses of Covid through the omicron variant are relatively easy,” explains the expert. “Nevertheless, this BA.5 subvariant should not be underestimated: It is an immune escape variant, which means it can also infect people who have just recovered from an omicron infection.” The host pool is therefore very large . “A careful spread of the disease over the summer months makes sense, but a real wave can cause problems and poses a danger to risk groups in Germany: the elderly and people with chronic illnesses,” warns Ulrichs.
Timo Ulrichs is a specialist in microbiology and infection epidemiologist. He works at the Institute for Global Health as a program director for international emergency and disaster relief. He also worked as a consultant at the Federal Ministry of Health, where he was responsible, among other things, for epidemic protection and influenza pandemic planning.
The experts’ answer: probably not, but it could be – and above all have unpleasant effects on the autumn. Because on the one hand we are currently dealing with very contagious variants of the corona virus and on the other hand we have dropped almost all protective measures in the past few weeks.
According to previous data, these two variants, which are now becoming dominant, are not only very contagious, but may also be more pathogenic (more pathogenic), Friedemann Weber, virologist at the University of Gießen, assesses the current corona situation: “It is therefore quite possible that the current increase will continue for a while and also lead to an increase in deaths – as can be observed in Portugal /21 gave. “Therefore, I don’t see that the summer vacation would really spoil us or that the health system would be overloaded,” Weber sums up. However, there could well be restrictions due to staff shortages or local outbreaks.
Friedemann Weber is a professor of virology and director of the corresponding institute at the Justus Liebig University in Giessen. There he researches, among other things, corona and influenza viruses.
A violent summer wave would be problematic, especially with a view to autumn. Because, Ulrichs warns: “If we go into autumn with a high number of newly infected people, the expected further pandemic wave in the autumn-winter season threatens to follow the summer wave.” This could result in very high numbers of serious illnesses, hospitalizations and even deaths.
“Portugal is a few weeks ahead of us,” explains epidemiologist Ulrichs. The proportion of newly infected people from BA.5 doubles about every week here, too, he draws the parallel. The fact that the subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are spreading so quickly is the reason for the currently rapidly increasing numbers.
That is why virologist Christian Drosten recently said that he was “somewhat concerned” about developments in Portugal, where not only the incidence but also the number of deaths increased. “There are no obvious explanations for this, because other European countries also have BA.5 increases without an increase in mortality. In a month we will know if something similar will happen to us.”
One explanation could be that the omicron subtypes are more dangerous again – in the sense of being more pathogenic (pathogenic). Studies provide the first indications of this.
The epidemiologist Markus Scholz showed little concern about BA.5. Due to the corona wave that was only recently overcome due to the BA.2 variant of Omikron, Scholz sees little danger that BA.5 could lead to high incidences in Germany as early as the summer. In an interview with the news portal “Watson”, the scientist from the Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology at the University of Leipzig said: “A heavy wave is currently not to be expected”.
According to Scholz, Germany will “probably only be faced with a new corona wave in the autumn if the immune effect has decreased by then.” Compared to Portugal, which is currently going through a BA.5 wave, the situation in this country is different. Because “there was no strong BA.2 wave like ours before, so the immunization is lower there.”
The epidemiologist Hajo Zeeb sees it similarly: “In neighboring Spain, the numbers have not risen so high, which already indicates that regional circumstances, vaccination processes and immunity as well as protective behavior definitely play a role.” In this respect, he does not expect an increase in incidence up to the very high values reached in the first omicron wave. Nevertheless, the situation in Portugal should also be a warning for Germany.
Reintjes says that there has been so much talk about the fact that we have to learn to live with the virus. “That doesn’t mean we can ignore the virus and go back to business as usual. Living with the virus means avoiding unnecessary risks and thereby protecting yourself and others. An important area is the wearing of masks in (public) indoor spaces,” advises the expert.
For the summer, virologist Weber sees the situation with regard to the measures as relaxed: “If necessary at all, then enforcing simple measures such as wearing a mask indoors whenever possible, ventilation, and regular self-tests should probably be sufficient.”
Everyone is expecting the number of cases to rise again in autumn. “However, there will hardly be any conditions that would require a lockdown, no matter what variant that will be,” says virologist Weber optimistically.
Ultimately, it is a political decision. “I don’t see the current government making any major efforts to actively intervene in the infection process,” criticizes epidemiologist Reintjes. “As citizens, however, we should learn to live with the virus and therefore act sensibly and reduce infections. In this way, further major social costs can be avoided in the current difficult times.”
“I therefore strongly recommend that older people and people with previous illnesses get their vaccinations again,” warned Minister of Health Lauterbach in view of the current corona situation. Experts have different opinions on this and ultimately it is a very personal decision.
The epidemiologist Ulrichs sees it in a similar way to the Minister of Health and advises everyone, at least people older than 60, to get vaccinated. Vaccination now is better than waiting for the omicron-specific vaccine in the fall (which could then be added as the 5th vaccination).
Virologist Weber also considers a fourth vaccination to be useful, especially for vulnerable and prioritized occupational groups, or in general if the last vaccination was significantly more than six months ago. “Otherwise, however, it will be important for the vaccination to be refreshed at the beginning of autumn,” emphasizes the expert. “Ideally, there will then be an adapted vaccine, but the classic vaccine will also help.”
When it comes to preventing a wave of infections in autumn, says Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology (DGfI): “I currently see no reason for a fourth vaccination for people under the age of 60 with a healthy immune system. These people still have very good protection against the serious illness, but sooner or later they will have a breakthrough infection. This then leads to the so-called hybrid immunity, which again protects these people very well against infection and illness. That way most people will get their immunity boosted every few years.”
