Vladimir Putin would have three options after a possible victory in the Luhansk region.
Military expert Ryan considers a phase of regeneration to be the most likely.
After the disgrace in Kyiv, Vladimir Putin changed his war tactics. Now his offensive in the east is showing its first successes. The embattled city of Sievjerodonetsk is already 70 percent in Russian hands, according to the local governor. It is considered strategically important in taking the entire Luhansk region.
In an article for ABC Australia, military expert Mick Ryan sees a possible Russian victory in the region as a welcome success for Russian propaganda. Putin would then have achieved a partial goal of the war. He can finally sell the Russians a war victory, says Ryan. And he could win over states that have so far been at odds with their position on Ukraine.
But the bigger question for Ryan is: what happens after a possible conquest of the Luhansk region? The ex-general presents three options.
The Russian military is exhausted from the war effort. Putin could therefore have his armed forces regenerated in the east of the country. He could have the conquered areas secured. Something that the Russians have rarely managed to do in the Ukraine war. But this pause strategy would of course also have a downside: if he does this, he takes the momentum out of the victorious battle for the Luhansk region.
Ryan explains that in longer wars, however, there are always such pauses. “In any long war there are constant movements of troops and preparations, culminating in short periods of fierce fighting. A Russian victory in Luhansk could put an end to such a phase of the struggle for the time being,” said Ryan.
Putin’s army could advance directly into Donetsk Oblast. So she could conquer the entire Donbass. This is, after all, the war goal declared by Putin. But conquering the Donetsk region is not an easy task. “It’s still a huge area,” Ryan said. And Ukraine still has a large number of very capable combat units in Donbass.
These units are currently under massive pressure and have suffered major losses. But Western arms shipments would help slow and even halt Russian advances in the region.
And that’s not the only risk for Putin: If he shifts his offensive towards Donetsk, he faces possible territorial losses in Luhansk. In addition, the Ukrainian army is already slowly but surely attacking Russian conquests in the south. “This is where the Russian successes get eaten away,” writes Ryan.
This is followed by Putin’s third option. The Russian President could turn the attention to the south. The fighting in the east would have to pause for this. Then the Russians could strengthen their defensive positions in the south. Otherwise Putin runs the risk of losing Cherson, Mariupol and the land bridge to Crimea again in the long term.
He could also repeatedly order attacks on the city of Kharkiv in the north. The effect: Ukraine could shift fewer troops to the south. The Russian defensive positions in the south would no longer be under such heavy pressure.
Regenerate, Fight or Relocate? Putin now has these three options for ex-General Ryan. However, he does not consider the full risk strategy to be likely. His reasoning: “Theoretically, Russia has these three options. In reality, a great deal of fatigue sets in on both sides. The losses are high. After four months of war, the pace of operations will probably no longer be maintained.” A phase of regeneration is most likely.
Heavy fighting continues in eastern Ukraine. Despite great resistance, the Russian army is advancing. Kyiv is therefore emphasizing its demand for heavy weapons. President Selenskyj also expects more from Berlin.
Vladimir Putin could never accept that his country would become a regional power. So he wages war and turns his eyes to Europe. Only an overthrow from within could change that.
Ukraine’s President Selenskyj warns Chancellor Scholz before his visit to Kyiv. There should be no “balancing act” between Russia and Ukraine. During his visit to Kyiv, Ambassador Melnyk expects Scholz to promise that tanks will be delivered. All voices and developments on the Ukraine war here in the ticker.
Heavy fighting continues in eastern Ukraine. Despite great resistance, the Russian army is advancing. Kyiv is therefore emphasizing its demand for heavy weapons. President Selenskyj also expects more from Berlin.
Vladimir Putin could never accept that his country would become a regional power. So he wages war and turns his eyes to Europe. Only an overthrow from within could change that.
Ukraine’s President Selenskyj warns Chancellor Scholz before his visit to Kyiv. There should be no “balancing act” between Russia and Ukraine. During his visit to Kyiv, Ambassador Melnyk expects Scholz to promise that tanks will be delivered. All voices and developments on the Ukraine war here in the ticker.
